Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Amerigas Ptrs (APU) 2014 Review

Amerigas Partners distributes propane to over two million residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural and motor fuel customers in 50 states.   It also installs and services propane appliances and motor fuel systems.  Earnings have been flat over the past five years though dividends have increased at a 5% rate.  When coupled with the very attractive yield of its stock, it offers an attractive total return. In that period, return on equity averaged 15-30%.  APU should be able to continue to grow its dividend as a result of:

(1)    a broadly diversified geographic and customer base,

(2)    acquisitions.

Negatives:

(1)    fluctuations in commodity prices,

(2)    demand is subject to seasonal and weather factors,

(3)    potential impact of new energy regulations.

            APU is rated B++ by Value Line, has a 61% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 7.9%.

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend       Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio*       Since 2004

APU           7.9%         5%               76%              7
Ind Ave      3.6            4                   58                NA

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

APU          61%             15               3                6%           B++
Ind Ave     45                11             NA               7              NA

* this is payout to cash flow

     Chart

            Note: APU stock made good initial progress off its October 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  The stock recently violated the lower boundary of its long term uptrend (black lines).  It is in an intermediate term trading range (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The High Yield Portfolio owns a 75% position in APU.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $18.  The lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $65.


   
4/14

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