Morning Journal--Citi's economic surprise index

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 
Automatic Data beats by $0.02, misses on revenue

·                                 Automatic Data (ADP): FQ1 EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.02.

·                                 Revenue of $2.8B misses by $0.01B.-

Praxair misses by $0.01

·                                 Praxair (PX): Q3 EPS of $1.51 misses by $0.01.

·                                 Revenue of $3.01B (+9% Y/Y) misses by $0.02B.

|6:06 AM|
Ecolab beats by $0.01, misses on revenues

·                                 Ecolab (ECL): Q3 EPS of $1.04 beats by $0.01.

·                                 Revenue of $3.48B (+15% Y/Y) misses by $0.06B.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The International Council of Shopping Centers reported monthly sales of major retailers declined 0.4% versus the prior week but rose 2.2% versus the comparable period a year ago; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales up 3.6% on a year over year basis.

            The August Case Shiller home price index rose 0.9% versus expectations of up 0.7%.

            http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/10/case-shiller-comp-20-house-prices.html

            August business inventories increased 0.3%, in line; business sales were up 0.4%.

            The Conference Board’s October index of consumer confidence came in at 71.2 versus estimates of 75.0 and September’s reading of 79.2

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php

                Weekly mortgage applications increased 6.4% while purchase applications were up 2.0%.

            The October ADP private payroll report showed a 130,000 rise in jobs versus consensus of 138,000 and September’s number of 166,000.

            The September consumer price index was up 0.2% in line; ex food and energy, it was up 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.2%.

   Other

            Citi’s economic surprise index (short and a must read):

                http://www.businessinsider.com/economic-surprise-index-falls-in-october-2013-10

            Europe’s deflation challenge (medium):

            http://www.american.com/archive/2013/october/europes-deflation-challenge

            And (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-29/four-horsemen-europes-deflationary-threat

            Update on the yen carry trade (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-29/spot-difference

            China’s hidden debt (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-29/michael-pettis-cautions-chinas-hidden-debt-must-still-be-repaid

Politics

  Domestic

I understand and appreciate this author’s concern about how public money is being currently handled and the impact of not investing in certain sectors of our economy to insure future growth and prosperity.  However, being focused on deficits in no way negates his arguments for more intelligent fiscal policy.  Indeed what Obamacare is teaching us is that there are some things the government simply shouldn’t be wasting time and money on.  The only thing that prevents us from cutting deficits through the elimination of foolish public policy and directing our resources to the areas that need attention is the will of our elected representatives.  This is not an economics issue, it is a political issue.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/attention-deficit-disorder-and-the-real-crisis-ahead.html

            More DC hijinks (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-29/congress-eliminate-debt-not-counting-it-anymore

            Republicans may propose raising medicare costs on the wealthy (medium):

            http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/29/us-usa-fiscal-medicare-idUSBRE99S1BN20131029