Saturday, June 8, 2013

The Closing Bell-6/8/13


The Closing Bell

6/8/13

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast

           
            2012

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product:                           2.2%
                        Inflation (revised):                                                              1.8 %
Growth in Corporate Profits:                                            16.1%

            2013

                        Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                       +1.0-+2.0
                        Inflation (revised)                                                             1.5-2.5
                        Corporate Profits                                                              0-7%

   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                14702-15435
Intermediate Uptrend                              14081-19081
Long Term Trading Range                       4783-17500
                                               
                        2012    Year End Fair Value                                     11290-11310

                        2013    Year End Fair Value                                     11590-11610                                          

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                       1615-1694
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                             1494-2082 
                                    Long Term Trading Range                               688-1750
                                                           
                        2012    Year End Fair Value                                      1390-1410

                        2013   Year End Fair Value                                       1430-1450         

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                              42%
            High Yield Portfolio                                        44%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                           43%

Economics/Politics
           
The economy is a modest positive for Your Money.   This week’s economic data was mixed though tilted a tad to the negative side: positives---weekly retail sales, May vehicle sales, weekly jobless claims, May nonfarm payrolls, May PMI and the April trade deficit; negatives---weekly mortgage and purchase applications, the ADP private payroll report, both the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indices, April construction spending, April factory orders, first quarter productivity and unit labor costs; neutral---the latest Fed Beige Book report.  So the data continues to roughly reflect our forecast, thought just barely; hence, I am  leaving the amber light flashing.

‘a below average secular rate of recovery resulting from too much government spending, too much government debt to service, too much government regulation, a financial system with an impaired balance sheet. and a business community unwilling to hire and invest because the aforementioned along with the likelihood a rising and potentially corrosive rate of inflation due to excessive money creation and the historic inability of the Fed to properly time the reversal of that monetary policy.’
           
            Update on the big four economic indicators:

            The pluses:

(1) our improving energy picture.  The US is awash in cheap, clean burning natural gas.... In addition to making home heating more affordable, low cost, abundant energy serves to draw those manufacturers back to the US who are facing rising foreign labor costs and relying on energy resources that carry negative political risks. 
                                         
       The negatives:

(1) a vulnerable global banking system. 

 ‘My concern here.....that: [a] investors ultimately lose confidence in our financial institutions and refuse to invest in America and [b] the recent scandals are simply signs that our banks are not as sound and well managed as we have been led to believe and, hence, are highly vulnerable to future shocks, particularly a collapse of the EU financial system.’

(2) fiscal policy.  Obama’s woes keep on growing.  This week, the IRS scandal  slowing worked its way up the food chain.  Thursday, a new brouhaha broke out with the disclosure of the NSA monitoring US citizens’ phones and emails.  It is unclear at the moment if the court’s were circumvented.  But regardless, this is going to keep ruling class attention diverted from responsible fiscal management.

      That said, Obama seems unphased by it all.  He butted heads with Boehner over the budget this week, vowing to veto any legislation that didn’t conform to His vision [more spending, more taxes].  While this ‘politics as usual’ helps the news agency fill space, it is becoming increasingly clear that one of the many reasons that the economy is trapped in a slow growth environment is because it is getting no help from fiscal policy.  And if we take Obama’s rhetoric at face value, then it will continue to get no help from fiscal policy. Of course, this is politics, so nothing can be taken at face value.

All that aside, US government debt continues to grow and that means that the risk is also increasing of the potential rise in interest rates and  its impact on the fiscal budget.  As I have noted previously, the US government’s debt has grown to such a size that its interest cost is now a major budget line item---and that is with rates at/near historic lows.  Moreover, government debt continues to increase and the lion’s share of this new debt is being bought by the Fed. 

So the risk here is two fold: [a] to the Fed---its balance sheet is levered to the point that Lehman Bros. looks like it was an AAA credit.  So if interest rates go up {and prices go down}, the very thin equity piece of the balance sheet would disappear.  The Fed would then be technically bankrupt. and [b] to the Treasury---it must pay the interest charges.  Hence, if rates go up, the interest costs to the government go up; and if they go up a lot, then this budget line item will explode and make all the more difficult any vow to reduce government spending as a percent of GDP.....

I remain open to the possibility that our political class will address the twin long term budget problems of entitlement spending and tax reform.   Were that to occur, it would turn fiscal policy into a positive for the economy.  However, its likelihood seems to be slipping away.
                  
(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  last week I opined that while I didn’t doubt that the Fed would fail again in any transition from ease to tightening, I was beginning to question whether this time it would wait too long and inflation would be the result---the alternative to that being that it tightens too quickly and pushes the economy back into recession.

The latter thesis received some play in the US press this week as the pundits attempted to explain the downside volatility.  Here are two of the best articles; both must reads:


This author then added the final nuance: it is not that investors fear an end to QE, it is that they realize the damage that QE is doing and cease playing the game that QE has birthed (medium and also a must read):


And here is one scenario from Citi on how bond markets could drive that process (medium and also a must read):

As I have noted previously, part of the problem in forecasting the consequences of the current massive, irresponsible expansion of global liquidity is that the world has never experienced anything like this before.  So while the above narratives on how QE will end make sense at the moment that could change as events unfold.  The point being that I remain quite uncertain as to whether security volatility, rising bond yields in the face of increasing expansion of central bank balance sheets, inflation, recession or all of the above will in hind sight be cited as the natural consequences of this monetary lunacy.

Having acknowledged that our economy is in uncharted waters and that I don’t know how the end game will play out, it would be a stretch to conclude that I do know for sure that it will end badly.  Nevertheless, the mere uncertainty associated with how it will end suggests caution.

Other potential problems flowing out of the current massive injection of liquidity are:

[a] our banks have used this largess for speculative purposes, increasing trading activities and funding the growth of auto and student loan bubbles---and now perhaps a new mortgage bubble.  The popping of any/all of these bubbles would likely drive the US economy back into recession,

                                The largest asset on the government’s balance sheet (short):

[b] in addition, one of the corollaries of too much money printing is the rise in the potential for a currency war.  ‘ an overly easy monetary policy generally results in the depreciation of the currency of that bank’s country which in turn improves that country’s trade balance and strengthens its economy.  That is great unless its trading partners get pissed and commence their own ‘easy money/currency depreciation’ effort.  At that point, you got yourself a currency war; and that seems to be the direction that the major economic powers are headed in.’ 

(4) a blow up in the Middle East.  ‘The US, Russia and Israel continue to lay down markers in the Syrian civil war.  As each side gets less flexible in its position, I worry that if violence erupts, it may in turn lead to a disruption in either the production or transportation of Middle East oil, pushing energy prices higher.’

(5)   finally, the sovereign and bank debt crisis in Europe.  This week, the data flow out of the EU improved somewhat, though not sufficiently to lessen my concerns about excessive sovereign indebtedness and poor quality, overleveraged EU bank balance sheets. 

To be sure, Europe has managed to ‘muddle through’ so far---indeed that has been our forecast.  But if recession proves to be one of the consequences as QE is unwound, the EU economy is much more vulnerable as a result of the magnitude of its collective indebtedness and overleveraged banks.
   
  Bottom line:  the US economy remains a positive for Your Money.  Fiscal policy is uncertain and becoming more so.  If a stalemate in Washington continues, so will the headwinds it is creating for the economy.

Central bank reserve creation continues, though recent volatility in the securities markets could be a warning sign.  That said, I have no clue how this experiment ends;  but that in itself poses a risk to all forecasts.

‘Finally, Europe remains a problem.  Its economy is deteriorating.  Meanwhile, the eurocrats have done nothing to lower the level of sovereign debt or improve highly overleveraged bank balance sheets.  That is a combustible combination.  True, Europe is and may continue to ‘muddle through’; but not because any attempt has been made to fix the underlying problems.’

Eurocrats finally admit their incompetence (medium): 

This week’s data:

(1)                                  housing: weekly mortgage and purchase applications declined,

(2)                                  consumer: weekly retail sales were up; May vehicle sales were better than anticipated; the May ADP private payroll report was weaker than forecast, May nonfarm payrolls were better and weekly jobless claims fell more than anticipated,

(3)                                  industry: the May PMI was slightly better than expected; both of the May ISM  manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indices were below estimates; April construction spending was a disappointment as was April factory orders,

(4)                                  macroeconomic: the April US trade deficit was below forecast; first quarter productivity was less than expected while unit labor costs were more; the latest Beige Book report was slightly less positive than its predecessor.


The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The volatility in the indices (DJIA 15348, S&P 1643) remains.  Friday was a big up day, with both of the Averages finishing within all their major uptrends: short term (14702-15435, 1615-1694), intermediate term (14081-19081, 1488-2076) and long term  (4783-17500, 688-1750). 

Volume fell and breadth was mixed.  The VIX challenged the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and fell back---a positive for stocks.  It remains within its intermediate term downtrend.

GLD got pummeled.  As you know, our Portfolios were preparing to Buy GLD on Friday’s open as a result of several weeks an improving technical picture.   However. GLD was down pre-opening and down big on the open---sufficiently so to make me step back (lucky is so much better than smart).  A lot of damage was done to GLD’s technicals by the end of the day.   As a result, much work will need to be done before it is again in a position to be Bought

Bottom line: clearly the ‘buy the dips’ thesis remains in tact as do the short term uptrends; although I am a bit confused about the ‘bad news is good news’ theory (see below).  Despite my very cautious view of the Market at these levels, the bullish momentum under the Market is still quite strong and could easily propel stock prices to new highs   The hypothesis that will now be tested is negative trend forecast by the May 22 ‘outside down day’---S&P 1675-1687 (the upper zone of the May 22 ‘outside down day) is now the critical resistance level. 

Any move to the upside that pushes our stocks into their Sell Half Range offers the opportunity to do just that.

   Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA (15248) finished this week about 33.1% above Fair Value (11450) while the S&P (1643) closed 15.7% overvalued (1419).  Incorporated in that ‘Fair Value’ judgment is some sort of half assed attempt at getting fiscal policy under control, continued money printing, a historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Europe.

Friday’s nonfarm payroll number helped give an otherwise lackluster week (economically speaking) a positive spin---and clearly impacted the Markets as such.  Overall the data is supporting our forecast though admittedly not entirely convincingly.  On the other hand, as I have observed numerous times, this would not be the first time that the stats have gone through a period of weakness only to bounce back later.

Judging by the escalation of the IRS scandal, the new surveillance revelations and the rhetoric out of the White House this week, further progress on fiscal policy seems to be slipping away.  As you know, I have been somewhat hopeful that some form of ‘grand bargain’ (entitlement and tax reform) could be struck.  In its absence, that would leave us with sequestration and the 1/1/13 tax increases as the only budget measures addressing our government’s fiscal irresponsibility---and  I would qualify that as half assed.

The debate over monetary policy continued this week.  Early in the week, the fear was that an improving economy would prompt the Fed to start tapering too quickly, pushing it back into recession, i.e. good news is bad news.  Then Friday a mildly positive nonfarm payroll number got investors tiptoeing through the tulips on the thesis that the economy was improving, i.e. good new is good news.  It’s all a bit confusing  In two weeks  we have gone from ‘good news is bad news’ (economic strength = Fed tapering) to ‘bad news is bad news’ (poor economic data = Fed may be tapering too soon) and ‘good news is good news’ (economic strength = economic strength).  It may be that investors are betting on the best of all worlds, i.e. the Fed may be tapering but it won’t matter because the economy is strong enough to progress without the added liquidity (and I might add able to withstand a withdrawal of liquidity).  

Good luck with that.  The reality is that (1) the current, massive global expansion of liquidity is unprecedented; and therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the unwinding of this process should also be unprecedented and (2) Fed has never, ever, ever successfully transitioned from easing to tight money policy.   

         Bottom line:  most of the assumptions in our Models are unchanged.  The key one is that continued economic growth is dependent on the vitality of US businesses to overcome a broken political (fiscal) system, a Fed that is making a bad situation worse (despite its best intentions) and a continent supposedly striving for fiscal unity that is instead coming unraveled.  I  am reasonably confident that the economy can continue to progress despite the hurdles posed by our ruling class.  I am less sure about the end result of a  monetary policy reaching new extremes daily or a euro bureaucracy divorced from reality. 

        Certainly nothing has occurred that improves equity valuations or persuades me to buy stocks are current price levels.
             
         In fact, this week, our Portfolios did nothing.

DJIA                                                    S&P

Current 2013 Year End Fair Value*                11600                                                 1440
Fair Value as of 6/30/13                                   11450                                                  1419
Close this week                                                15248                                                  1643

Over Valuation vs. 6/30 Close
              5% overvalued                                 12022                                                    1489
            10% overvalued                                 12595                                                   1560 
            15% overvalued                                   13167                                             1631
            20% overvalued                                 13740                                                    1702   
            25% overvalued                                   14312                                                  1773   
            30% overvalued                                   14885                                                  1844
            35% overvalued                                   15457                                                  1916

Under Valuation vs.6/30 Close
            5% undervalued                             10877                                                      1348
10%undervalued                              10305                                                  1277   
15%undervalued                             9732                                                    1206

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years with somewhat higher inflation. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns,  managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.







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