Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

6/17/13

The Market

           

    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P closed right on the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  While it appears to have escaped from the very short term downtrend, it can’t generate any momentum to the upside.  Amid confusion and volatility, the best thing to do is nothing.

            GLD is still holding above its double bottom and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  Like the S&P, it seems to have successfully challenged the very short term downtrend but can sustain no upward momentum.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/stunning-images-china-ten-thousand-people-waiting-line-buy-gold

            The VIX continues to battle with the upper boundary of its short term downtrend but can’t hold on to any break.  However, if it does successfully push through that boundary, it would be a bad sign for stocks.

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

            The latest from David Rosenberg (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-13/10-nagging-concerns    

            The latest from Bill Gross (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/pimcos-bill-gross-which-way-bonds

            Revenue and earnings expectations continue to decline (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/stocks-headwinds-are-clear-and-seem-be-strengthening

            Update on the big four economic indicators:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Big-Four-Economic-Indicators.php

     Investing for Survival

            What a crisis feels like (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-12/guest-post-what-crisis-feels

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The NY Fed June manufacturing index came in at a surprising 7.84 versus expectations of 0.5.

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

A potentially damaging disclosure in the NSA phone/email monitoring scandal (medium):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-16/nsa-admits-warrantless-wiretapping-according-house-judiciary-committee-member

  International

            Spain’s debt hits new high (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/spains-debt-surges-record-high-accelerating-pace

            The Syrian conflict ramps up another notch (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-16/iran-sends-4000-troops-aid-syrias-assad

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at