Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Altria (MO) 2013 Review

Altria is the holding company for Phillip Morris USA, John Middleton (machine made cigars), UST (moist smokeless tobacco) and Phillip Morris Capital Corporation.  As a result of the spin offs of Kraft Foods and Phillip Morris International, breaking out past return on equity numbers as well as dividend and earnings growth rates directly attributable to this entity is beyond our pay grade;  plus we have yet to find any other analyst that has undertaken the task.

        Looking forward, the primary attraction that MO holds for us is its dividend yield (5.1%) as well as its very high cash flow per share which should allow the company to increase its dividend annually as well as engage in a share buy back program.

That said, the company should be able to grow its earnings in the future as a result of:

(1) major emphasis on new product line extensions into smokeless tobacco and cigars,

            (2) its joint effort with Okona to develop noncombustible nicotine products,

(3) increased operating efficiencies,

Negatives:

(1) the recent large increase in the Federal excise tax on cigarettes,

(2) increased restricts on smoking,

MO is rated B+ by Value Line, has debt to equity ratio of 79% and its stock yields 5.1%.

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend       Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2009

MO            5.1%           7%             75%               4
Ind Ave      4.2              9                54                NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2008      Margin       Rating

MO           79%            61%            1                20%           B+
Ind Ave     61               48              NA              17             NA

       Chart
           
            Note:  MO stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its January 2008 (red line) high and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term the stock is in an uptrend (straight blue lines).  Intermediate term it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The High Yield Portfolio owns a full position in MO.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $16; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $49.
   




6/13

No comments:

Post a Comment