Tuesday, February 26, 2013

General Dynamics (GD) 2013 Review

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General Dynamics is a leading defense contractor supplying products and technology to marine systems, combat systems, information systems and aerospace (basically submarines, tanks, aircraft and command and control systems). The company has grown earnings and dividends 14% and 12% respectively over the last 10 years and has earned a consistently high 17-18% return on equity.   GD should be able to continue to match that record because of:

(1) growth in commercial aerospace division,

(2) acquisitions,

(3) an aggressive cost reduction program

Negatives:

(1)    a large percentage of its sales are dependent on government spending both in the US and Europe,

(2)    its backlog has declined recently.

GD has a debt to equity ratio of approximately 17%, is rated A++ by Value Line and its stock provides a yield of 3.1%.

    Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2003

GD            3.1%         8%               29%              10
Ind Ave      2.3           11*                24               NA 

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

GD            17%           16%           0                 8%           A++
Ind Ave     39               18            NA               9             NA

*most companies in GD’s industry don’t pay a dividend

     Chart

Note: GD made good initial progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its September 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  However, the advance soon stalled thereafter and the stock has been in an intermediate term trading range (purple lines) since.  Long term, GD is also in a trading range (blue lines).  As you can see, the stock is near challenging its 50 day moving average (wiggly red line).  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a full position in GD---though GD has been traded, selling in the high 60’s/low 70’s and buying back in the low 60’s,   The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $38; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $80.


           
  
2/13

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