Thursday, December 20, 2012

McCormick (MKC) 2012 Review

McCormick & Co is a leading manufacturer, marketer and distributor of spices, seasonings, flavorings and other specialty food products for consumer, industrial and foodservice markets.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 10-11% annual pace over the past 10 years earning a 20%+ return on equity.  MKC should be able to sustain this record because:

(1) a major cost reduction program,

(2) introduction of new products [e.g. World Flavors that allows consumers an easy way to prepare restaurant style ethnic foods at home],

(3) international expansion,

(4) acquisitions that support its brands,

Negatives:

(1) rising raw material costs,

(2) its international business exposes it to currency fluctuation risk,

(3) it maintains high inventories [costs] due to its inability to hedge raw material.

McCormick is rated A by Value Line, has a 37% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 2.2%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2002

MKC          2.2%         9%              40%             10
Ind Ave       1.8            7                 38               NA 

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
              Equity         ROE      Since 2002      Margin       Rating

MKC         37%           22%            0                 11%         A
Ind Ave      39              20             NA                7            NA

    Chart

            Note:  MKC stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2008 high (red line) and the November trading high (green line).  Long term, MKC is in an uptrend (straight blue lines),  Intermediate term it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio does not own MKC stock.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $44; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $73.



12/12

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