The Morning Call
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P made a pronounced break of the lower boundary of its short term uptrend
(brown lines). This starts our time and
distance discipline; so there is no confirmation of that break under our
discipline. In addition, as I mentioned
the last time the S&P tested its short term uptrend’s lower boundary, there
are two other support levels nearby---(1) the 1422 former resistance, now
support level and (2) the 50 day moving average [1433]---and I think it likely
that the S&P will either break all or break none. In other words, the S&P is in a zone of
heavy support; so we need to view all those support levels as a single entity. Hence, if the S&P doesn’t confirm a break
of 1422, it likely won’t confirm the break any of the others.
GLD
also sold off on Friday, breaking the 168.4 interim support level. Notice it is nearing its 50 moving average
(wiggly red line). While well above the
lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and intermediate term trading range,
because a portion of our GLD holding is a trading position, at the open this
morning, our Portfolios will Sell a quarter of their shares (leaves a 15% position). If GLD breaks its 50 day moving average, they
will Sell another quarter. They would be
looking to Buy those shares back near the lower boundary of the short term
uptrend.
The
VIX spiked up Friday, breaking back through its 50 day moving average (wiggly
red line); but it remains well within the broad zone between the upper boundary
of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term
trading range.
Update
on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:
Fundamental
A
summary of third quarter earnings to date (short/medium):
Investing for Survival
The
story on one hedge fund trader turned farmer:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-21/lessons-fiat-reality-why-i-learned-trade-less-and-love-farm
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
McDonald's (MCD): Q3 EPS of $1.43 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $7.15B (-13.9% Y/Y) in-line. Shares -2.5%
Caterpillar (CAT): Q3 EPS of $2.54 beats by $0.31. Revenue of $16.45B misses
by $340M. Shares -1.4% premarket.
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical Islam
Here
is a rather lengthy analysis of post transition China
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