Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The Morning Call--Futures suggest all is well in stock land

The Morning Call

10/31/12

The Market
           
    Technical

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Two secondary economic indicators were reported yesterday: the August Case Shiller home price index which was up though not as much as anticipated; the ICSC September weekly retail sales were also up but also not as much as estimated. Not great, not terrible and no impact on our forecast.

            Today could be wild and woolly with (1) two days of normal trading to catch up on, (2) several news events [see below] to digest not counting the effects of the hurricane and (3) it being last day of the month and the fiscal year for many hedge funds.
           
 That said, futures are up in premarket trading, though why I haven’t a clue.  Maybe its because the European September unemployment rate rose to 11.6% (Italy unemployment is now 10.8% up from 10.6% but it still has a way to go until it hits Spain's 25%) even as consumer prices kept inflation at a steady 2.5% rate, or that French producer prices rose more than expected even as spending missed expectations, or that Spanish housing permits collapsed by 37.2% in August from July, or that Greek retail sales plunged by 7.2% Y/Y and the Greek 2013 economic outlook was cut in the latest budget with the budget deficit now seen at 5.2% from 4.2% before and that Greece now sees 189.1% debt/GDP in 2013 up from 175.6% in 2012, or that Japan just cut its economic outlook last night after its manufacturing PMI came at 46.9, the lowest since 2009 excluding Fukushima, or that UK consumer confidence printed -30, vs. -28 last and the lowest since April, or that Taiwan slashed its 2012 GDP forecast from 1.66% to 1.05%, or that nothing has been resolved on the Greek labor reforms or the now two month overdue Troika bailout, or that insolvent Spain has still not requested a bailout, or that virtually every company that has reported revenues in the last two "dark days" missed expectations, or...............well, you get the point.
      
      Ruling Greek coalition falls apart (medium):

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