Thursday, October 25, 2012

The Morning Call--The edge of a breakdown


The Morning Call

10/25/12

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 13077, S&P 1408) tried to rally yesterday but couldn’t sustain it.  They closed below the lower boundaries of their short term trading ranges for the fourth day in a row, negating that trend. 

The task now is to find a lower boundary of a short term trading range.  Candidates include (1) the former resistant now support levels of 13302/1422.  The problem with this alternative is that they are going through their own challenge---with both of the Averages finishing for the second day in a row below these levels and (2) the 12973/1395 minor support level.

The indices also closed below their 50 day moving average---the Dow for the third day, the S&P for the second day.

They remain above the lower boundaries of their intermediate term uptrends (12619-17619, 1339-1928).

Volume fell while breadth was mixed.  The VIX declined (unusual for a down day in prices) but stayed within striking distance of the upper boundary of its short term downtrend.  It is well above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

GLD closed down for the fourth day below the interim support level, negating that support.  It also closed for the second day below its 50 day moving average.  It remains well above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.

The recent decline in GLD prices have been closely related to a stronger dollar.  That strength is coming from two possible sources:

(1)                                conditions in Europe are deteriorating and traders are selling euro denominated assets and buying dollar denominated assets.  Forgetting the fact that the US has its own set of problems which would argue for a weak dollar, investors nonetheless perceive the US as a safer place to put their money today than Europe.  This trade could, of course, reverse itself once investors realize that the least worse alternative can still be awful---not too dissimilar to investors chasing stocks up recently because equities were perceived as a less bad place to put their money than bonds. Hence, all other things being equal, this strong dollar, weak gold trade may have a short shelf life,

(2)                                however, all things are never equal.  In this case, it may be the investors are starting to price in a Romney, victory assuming [the operative word] that he changes the Fed chief and advocates tighter money [a stronger dollar].  I would love to embrace this scenario but [a] the elections aren’t over and [b] I am not convinced at all that the GOP has changed its stripes.  So GLD still has a place in our Portfolios.  But if Romney wins and attacks the budget deficit and easy money as he says he will, then the long term appeal of GLD will be less.  That said, that is a bet that I am not yet ready to make beyond what I have already done---Selling our Portfolios’ trading position in GLD.

Bottom line:  yesterday was hardly the rebound from an oversold Market that I had expected.  Indeed, if the morning rally was that bounce back, then the triple support level (lower boundary of short term uptrend, 50 day moving average, the 13302/1422 support) is apt to be broken.  The lower boundaries of the short term uptrend have now been taken out under our time and distance discipline; the 50 day moving averages and 13302/1422 support level are teetering on the edge.  The total breakdown of the triple support zone may not be a fait accompli but it is in the eighth inning. 

If so, next stop is 12973/1395 minor support, 12973/1375 the 200 day moving average and the lower boundaries of the intermediate term uptrends

A final note, more of our Portfolios’ stocks are either approaching or closed or right on significant technical support yesterday; so a further plunge could trigger some trading sales.

Our Portfolios’ GLD trading positions have been eliminated.  The holdings are now at 10%.

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            The economic news yesterday was on balance mixed to positive: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were pretty bad but September new home sales were robust---the latter being a much more important indicator of the economy in general and housing in particular than the former.

            In addition, the Fed wrapped up its latest FOMC meeting and the accompanying statement said little that was new.

            The Fed statement:

            A Romney Fed (medium):

            Finally, as I mentioned in yesterday’s Morning Call, EU PMI’s came in very disappointing.

            The eurocrats just can’t get it right (medium):

            Especially the Greeks (watch video for your Thursday morning humor):

Bottom line: stocks are creeping back to Fair Value which is a positive; and the primary economic indicators continue to turn in a solid performance which makes our forecast right on.....but I continue to believe that in the absence of clarity on how the eurocrats are going to hold the eurozone together and maintain it as a viable economic entity, caution is essential for the principal reason that the economic downside for the US and its banking institutions is so great.  At the risk of being repetitious, I am not saying the EU will implode.  I am saying that the probability of such is high enough and the damage it would do to our economy is high enough, that an above average cash position is warranted at current price levels.

We also can’t forget about the ‘fiscal cliff’.  As I noted yesterday, the odds of it occurring have increased of late; however, I don’t think that it carries the magnitude of downside that an implosion in the EU does.  In addition, as I have also mentioned, a Romney victory is more likely to lead to more immediate economic pain than an Obama win---we should be so lucky.  Investors have to come to grips with this idea (Romney win, more immediate pain) and that could cause stock price heartburn while it is happening. 

All that said, a decline to the 1270-1330 zone would find me a buyer.

            Warren Buffett thinks that stock prices are ‘difficult’ (short):

      Investing for Survival

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