The Morning Call---A (un) clear explanation of how reciprocal tariffs work

 

The Morning Call

 

3/21/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/post-fed-hangover-hits-stocks-traders-remember-liberation-day-looms

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-not-earnings-its-liquidity-stupid-goldman-macro-trader-eyes-post-0fed-opportunity

 

            Quad witch option expiration tomorrow.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/47-trillion-opex-looms-liberation-day-fear-trumps-gamma-greed

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          February existing home sales rose 4.2% versus forecasts of -0.7%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/20/existing-home-sales-rebound-4-2-in-february

 

                        International

 

                          February Japanese CPI was -0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

The March UK consumer confidence index came in at -19 versus estimates of -21; the March industrial trends orders index was -29 versus -30.

 

                        Other

 

                          Thursday in the economic charts.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-20/the-fed-is-clueless-too-and-that-s-ok?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Jobless claims suggest sluggish growth.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/jobless-claims-suggest-continued.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Tariffs give the Fed a convenient inflation foil.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-tariffs-donald-trump-inflation-fomc-cda1c2a0?mod=opinion_lead_pos2

 

              The Fed is clueless as to how to respond to tariffs.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-20/the-fed-is-clueless-too-and-that-s-ok?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Government interest costs at highest level since 2007.

              https://www.ft.com/content/d69aa3cb-a474-40b7-87ea-5a652202ff6b

 

            Recession

           

              Update on nowcasts and potential recession start date.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/ft-booth-macro-survey-on-gdp-growth-vs-nowcasts

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs: Trump versus Biden.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/which-presidents-first-term-trade.html

 

              A clear explanation of how reciprocal tariffs work.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-clear-explanation-of-how-reciprocal-tariffs-will-work/

 

     Investing

 

            Beautiful versus practical advice.

            https://collabfund.com/blog/beautiful-vs-practical-advice/

 

            An interesting theory on Trump’s enthusiasm for a bitcoin reserve.

            https://unherd.com/2025/03/trumps-crypto-time-bomb/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Dementia rates are rising; but there are things that we can do to help prevent it.

            The reason dementia rates are rising — and what to do about it

 

 

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