The Morning Call
3/28/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-new-record-high-bonds-stocks-continue-slide
The Trump ‘put’ is
struck lower.
Goldman trader on
Q1 chaos.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/squeeze-wobble-whats-next-goldman-macro-trader-reflects-q1s-chaos
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
February personal
income rose 0.8% versus estimates of +0.4%; February personal spending was up
0.4% versus +0.5%.
February PCE index
was up 0.3%, in line; core PCE was up 0.5% versus +0.3%.
February pending home sales were up 2.0%
versus forecasts of +1.5%.
The March Kansas
City Fed manufacturing index came in at 1 versus predictions of -14.
International
Q4 UK GDP growth
was +0.1%, in line; Q4 business investment was down 1.9% versus -3.2%; the January
trade balance was -L2.6 billion versus -L3.5 billion; February retail sales
were up 1.0% versus -0.3%; ex fuel, they were up 1.0% versus -0.5%.
March Japanese YoY
CPI was +2.9% versus consensus of +3.1%; YoY core CPI was +2.4% versus +2.2%.
The March German
unemployment rate was 6.3% versus projections of 6.2%; the April consumer
confidence index was -24.5 versus -23.
The March EU economic
sentiment index was 95.2 versus expectations of 97.0; the March industrial sentiment
index was -10.6 versus -10.5; the March services sentiment index was 2.4 versus
6.7; the March consumer confidence index was -14.5, in line.
Other
Update on Q1 nowcasts.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/gdpnow-bouncing-near-zero
February goods trade balance shows more tariff
front running.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/second-massive-wave-of-imports-shows-more-tariff-front-running/
Recession
Risks of a recession are not as high as the
media suggests.
New indicator says recession not imminent.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-recession-not-imminent-says-new-indicator
Inflation
Stagflation risks rising.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/stagflation-risks-rising-2/
Tariffs
Tariffs shrink America.
Trump issues more tariff threats.
What Canada’s tariffs on dairy imports mean.
Geopolitics
US pushes for expansive new deal to control
Ukraine’s minerals.
https://www.ft.com/content/896da2e5-daa5-4b4e-a51c-0aef4de95d36
Investing
Q4 Russell 2000 earnings
results.
Q4 corporate
profits as a leading indicator.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/long-leading-indicators-update.html
An early look at
Q1 earnings reports.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/making-sense-of-early-q1-earnings-reports?post=487862
How sustainable is
US exceptionalism?
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/how-sustainable-is-us-exceptionalism
Bond investing amid
a high macro-uncertainty environment.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/bonds-continue-to-offer-a-haven-amid-high-macro-uncertainty/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment