The Morning Call--Restoring order to the tariffs rollout

 

The Morning Call

 

3/19/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/russia-rate-cuts-no-recession-gold-surges-record-highs-everything-else-dumps

 

            Margin debt falls for first time in six months.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/18/margin-debt-falls-for-first-time-in-six-months-in-february

 

            Is a rally in the offing?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/a-multi-week-rally-is-starting?post=487184

 

            Investors slash US equity holdings by most ever.

            https://www.ft.com/content/e0b8fcfe-77a9-456d-bb6a-d2b8b489577d

 

            Bitcoin set for reversal.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-price-set-for-reversal-to-130000-after-forming-major-cup-and-handle-support?post=487269

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 6.2% while purchase applications were unchanged.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

February industrial production was up 0.7% versus forecasts of +0.2%; capacity utilization was 78.2% versus 77.8%.

 

                        International

 

                          January Japanese industrial production fell 1.1%, in line.

 

                          February EU CPI was up 0.4% versus predictions of up 0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Latest Q1 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-gdp-nowcast-remains-at-stall-speed-pace-for-q1/

 

                          A deeper dive into February retail sales.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/17/retail-sales-in-february-were-confusing/

 

            Recession

 

              Update of recession odds.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/decline-in-us-recession-odds-stalls.html

 

              Plus.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/are-we-heading-into-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-shows

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/18/recession-indicators-industrial-production-february-2025

 

            Tariffs

 

              The risky business of tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/18/the_risky_business_of_trumps_steel_and_aluminum_tariffs_1097513.html

 

              Restoring order to the tariffs rollout.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-18/upply-chain-latest-what-are-reciprocal-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Investing

 

If you want a handle on stocks prices, concentrate on Trump’s policy moves (if that is possible).

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-discounting-mechanism/?src=news

 

            Why the awful consumer sentiment numbers are reason to buy stocks.

            https://investorplace.com/smartmoney/2025/03/consumer-data-makes-us-excited-about-stocks/

 

            Putting volatility into perspective.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/18/putting-recent-volatility-perspective

 

            In praise of gold.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/we-cant-ignore-this-record-high/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP754&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

 

            Barry Ritholtz ten biggest ideas of how not to invest.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/03/biggest-ideas-in-hntii/

 

            BofA’s latest Fund Manager Survey.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crash-wall-street-mood-euphoric-apocalyptic-leads-record-rotation-out-us-stocks

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Jesse James: rise of an American outlaw.

            How Jesse James became America's most popular criminal

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/03/quotation-of-the-day-4952.html

 

            Tips for traders.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/03/answering-traders-questions.html

 

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