Tuesday, March 11, 2025

The Morning Call---If it bounces, it could bounce a lot

 

The Morning Call

 

3/11/25

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/economic-detoxtransition-fears-spark-largest-mag7-market-cap-loss-record-bonds-bid

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fear-and-loathing-worlds-largest-trading-desk-goldmans-traders-reflect-todays-crash

 

            If it bounces, it could bounce a lot.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/if-it-bounces-it-could-bounce-lot

 

            The liquidation is over.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidation-over-ctas-are-now-short-10bn-after-selling-193-billion-2-weeks

 

            The most oversold country in the world.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-most-oversold-country-in-the-world

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The February small business optimism index came in at 100.7 versus expectations of 101.0.

 

                        International

 

Q4 Japanese GDP grew 2.2% versus forecasts of +2.8%; Q4 capital expenditures were up 2.2% versus +2.8%; Q4 private consumption was flat versus +0.1%; the Q4 YoY price index was up 2.9% versus +2.5%; February household spending fell 4.5% versus -1.9%; February YoY machine tool orders were up 3.5% versus +4.7%.

 

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Monday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-7th-2025/

 

                          February rail car loads down, intermodal up.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/aar-rail-carloads-down-yoy-in-february.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Washington and Beijing have begun discussions about a potential “birthday summit” in June in the U.S. between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The latest talks on a potential summit in the month when both leaders celebrate birthdays signal a willingness from both sides to inject some goodwill in the relationship amid trade tensions that have unsettled markets and businesses.

 

Talks between the US and China on trade and other issues are stuck at lower levels, people familiar with the matter said, with both sides talking past each other and failing to agree on the best way to proceed. While representatives from the two countries have had contact, officials in Beijing say the US hasn’t outlined detailed steps they expect from China on fentanyl in order to have the tariffs lifted. Trump’s team rejects the assertion that it hasn’t given clear demands on fentanyl.

 

US President Trump said on Truth Social that "Despite the fact that Canada is charging the USA from 250% to 390% Tariffs on many of our farm products, Ontario just announced a 25% surcharge on “electricity,” of all things, and you’re not even allowed to do that. Because our Tariffs are reciprocal, we’ll just get it all back on April 2. Canada is a Tariff abuser, and always has been, but the United States is not going to be subsidizing Canada any longer. We don’t need your Cars, we don’t need your Lumber, we don’t your Energy, and very soon, you will find that out".

 

Japanese Trade Minister Muto said he asked that Japan be exempt from tariffs in talks with US officials and did not get any assurance from the US that Japan will be exempted from US tariffs due to come into force on Wednesday.

 

South Korean acting President Choi said the time for negotiating with the US has begun ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect, while he added that President Trump's America First moves are targeting South Korea and the government will respond calmly and flexibly, considering only national interests.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              QT, the debt ceiling and the credit markets.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/08/why-the-fed-considers-pausing-or-slowing-qt-until-the-resolution-of-the-debt-ceiling-situation/

 

              M2

  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS#

 

            Tariffs

 

              US waking up to the impact of tariffs.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/americans-are-waking-up-to-the-consequences-of-us-tariffs-aimed-at-canada?post=486046

 

              Tariffs are often short lived. Their legacies aren’t.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-trade-war-long-term-effects-795f9226?mod=economy_lead_pos2

 

     Investing

 

            What to do about the Market selloff.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/what-to-do-about-the-market-selloff/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP749&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Something went wrong.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/then-something-went-wrong-goldman-macro-trader-explains-how-we-got-here

 

            When valuations collide.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/10/when-valuations-collide

 

            Is the bull market resting or turning down?

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-10/is-the-bull-market-in-detox-or-melting-down?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        Treasuries rally and recession angst increases.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/treasuries-gain-as-trump-transition-talk-fuels-recession-angst?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Stock Market vigilantes on warpath.

            Stock Market Vigilantes On The Warpath

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, 25% increase from prior dividend of $0.40.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment