The Morning Call
3/11/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the charts.
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desks.
If it bounces, it could bounce a lot.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/if-it-bounces-it-could-bounce-lot
The liquidation is
over.
The most oversold
country in the world.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The February small
business optimism index came in at 100.7 versus expectations of 101.0.
International
Q4 Japanese GDP
grew 2.2% versus forecasts of +2.8%; Q4 capital expenditures were up 2.2%
versus +2.8%; Q4 private consumption was flat versus +0.1%; the Q4 YoY price
index was up 2.9% versus +2.5%; February household spending fell 4.5% versus
-1.9%; February YoY machine tool orders were up 3.5% versus +4.7%.
Other
Monday in the economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-7th-2025/
February rail car loads down, intermodal up.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/aar-rail-carloads-down-yoy-in-february.html
Overnight
News
Washington and
Beijing have begun discussions about a potential “birthday summit” in June in
the U.S. between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The latest
talks on a potential summit in the month when both leaders celebrate birthdays
signal a willingness from both sides to inject some goodwill in the
relationship amid trade tensions that have unsettled markets and businesses.
Talks between the
US and China on trade and other issues are stuck at lower levels, people
familiar with the matter said, with both sides talking past each other and
failing to agree on the best way to proceed. While representatives from the two
countries have had contact, officials in Beijing say the US hasn’t outlined
detailed steps they expect from China on fentanyl in order to have the tariffs
lifted. Trump’s team rejects the assertion that it hasn’t given clear demands
on fentanyl.
US
President Trump said on Truth Social that "Despite the fact that Canada is
charging the USA from 250% to 390% Tariffs on many of our farm products,
Ontario just announced a 25% surcharge on “electricity,” of all
things, and you’re not even allowed to do that. Because our Tariffs
are reciprocal, we’ll just get it all back on April 2. Canada is a Tariff
abuser, and always has been, but the United States is not going to be
subsidizing Canada any longer. We don’t need your Cars, we don’t need your
Lumber, we don’t your Energy, and very soon, you will find that out".
Japanese
Trade Minister Muto said he asked that Japan be exempt from tariffs in talks
with US officials and did not get any assurance from the US that Japan will be
exempted from US tariffs due to come into force on Wednesday.
South
Korean acting President Choi said the time for negotiating with the US has
begun ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect, while he added
that President Trump's America First moves are targeting South Korea and
the government will respond calmly and flexibly, considering only national
interests.
Monetary
Policy
QT, the debt ceiling and the credit markets.
M2
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS#
Tariffs
US waking up to the impact of tariffs.
Tariffs are often short lived. Their legacies
aren’t.
Investing
What to do about
the Market selloff.
Something went
wrong.
When valuations collide.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/10/when-valuations-collide
Is the bull market
resting or turning down?
Treasuries rally and recession angst
increases.
Stock
Market vigilantes on warpath.
Stock
Market Vigilantes On The Warpath
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.50/share
quarterly dividend, 25% increase from prior dividend of $0.40.
What
I am reading today
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