The Morning Call
3/25/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
For the bulls.
Valuations, flows
and seasonality.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
February building permits
declined 1.0% versus expectations of -1.2%; recall that February housing starts
were up 11.2%.
The March flash
manufacturing PMI was 49.8 versus consensus of 51.8; the flash services PMI was
54.3 versus 50.8; the flash composite PMI was 53.5 versus 51.5.
International
The March German
business climate index came in at 86.7, in line; the March current conditions
index was 85.7 versus 85.5.
Other
A
good argument for why I am wrong on both economic growth and inflation.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/24/illuminati-part-2-inflationista
Further evidence that
my ‘muddle through’ scenario is hanging on by its fingernails.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/a-quick-and-dirty-update-employment-is.html
Monday in the
economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-21st-2025/
Overnight
News
A Trump
administration proposal to impose stiff levies on Chinese-made ships entering
US ports is sowing panic in the country’s agriculture industry, with farmers
saying the added cost threatens to upend exports of wheat, corn, and soybeans.
The US Trade Representative has recommended imposing fees of up to $1.5mm per port
call on ships built in China or operated by companies with Chinese-built
vessels, and hearings on the matter are scheduled for this week.
Ukraine
unconditionally supports the idea of a full ceasefire with Russia, Kyiv’s
Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova said.
US President Trump signed an order imposing sanctions on
countries importing Venezuelan oil and said tariffs for doing business with
Venezuela will be on top of existing tariffs but added that not all
tariffs will be included on April 2nd.
India proposed to remove the 6% tariff imposed on online
advertisement services offered by companies such as Google (GOOG) and Meta
(META), widely known as the Google tax from April 1st, which is a day
before Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect.
Subsequently, India is reportedly open to cutting
tariffs on over half of US imports, worth USD 23bln, via Reuters citing
sources; open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5-30% range on 55% of US
imports. Estimates a hit to USD 66bln worth of exports to the US from
reciprocal tariffs. In return for tariff cuts, seeking relief from reciprocal
tariffs.
Monetary
Policy
The Fed faces a crisis.
The latter part of
this article gets a bit too political for me; but the first three quarters are
an interesting history of the evolution of the dollar based foreign exchange
regime.
https://www.ft.com/content/8a71dceb-806f-4681-80f9-416aa4c366ca
Fiscal
Policy
Devaluing the dollar will make America poor
again.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/devaluing-us-dollar-how-make-america-poorer-again
Inflation
Is inflation necessary?
https://talkmarkets.com/content/is-inflation-necessary?post=488052
Recession
US consumer melting down.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-consumer-melting-down-heres-why
Tariffs
Trump postpones ‘Liberation Day’.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-postpones-liberation-day-to-focus-on-the-dirty-15/
Investing
A crypto reserve
misunderstands money.
This timing system
beats the Market by using the calendar.
Treasury yield
curve re-inverts.
A comprehensive
guide to retirement income strategies.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Unusual potential
discovery beneath the pyramids.
Happiness isn’t everything.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/good-news-happiness-isnt-everything
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