The Morning Call
3/18/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-squeeze-higher-soft-data-slumps-dollar-dumps
Potential signals
for a rally.
Dips should be traded
not invested.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/a-negative-wealth-shock?post=487069
Gold’s rampage.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/650-elephant-golds-rampage-time-overshoot
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
February housing
starts rose 11.2% versus projections of -1.9%; preliminary building permits
fell 1.2% versus -0.2%.
The March housing index came in at 39 versus
estimates of 42.
International
The January EU
trade balance was +E1 billion versus expectations of +E14 billion.
The March EU
economic sentiment index came in at 39.8 versus consensus of 39.6; the March
German economic sentiment index was 51.6 versus 48.1; the March German current conditions
index was -87.6 versus -80.5.
Other
Economic uncertainty at extremes.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/economic-policy-uncertainty-at-recorded-maximum
Update on big four recession indicators.
Monday in the economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-17th-2025/
Mortgage loans in forbearance decreased in
February.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html
Overnight
News
Russia’s Vladimir
Putin is demanding a suspension of all arms deliveries to Ukraine during a
ceasefire proposed by Donald Trump, according to people familiar. The two
leaders are set to hold a call this morning.
Israeli airstrikes
pounded Gaza, killing more than 400 people, Palestinian health authorities said
on Tuesday, threatening the complete collapse of a two-month ceasefire as
Israel vowed to use more force to free hostages held by Hamas.
Allocation
to U.S. stocks saw the biggest drop ever in March with concerns over
stagflation, trade wars and end of U.S. exceptionalism driving a "bull
crash" in sentiment. Global investors raised their allocation to cash to
4.1% from 3.5%, ending a "sell signal" triggered in December, with
the speed of the downturn in sentiment being "consistent with end of
equity correction.”
USTR
Greer is imposing a policy process on the reciprocal tariff plan in an attempt
to inject order into new tariffs expected next month, after previous
announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty.
Monetary
Policy
Fed faces triple threat.
The Fed’s dilemma.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/business/economy-inflation-fed-trump.html
Recession
Will economic detox lead to a recession?
Real investments remain high.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/17/tariffs-hides-positive-developments
Tariffs
OECD: tariffs will slow global growth, raise inflation.
Investing
Why the stock
market hates tariffs.
https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/03/13/three-things-moar-tariffs/
The Market needs
more than rate cuts to recover.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/markets-need-more-than-rate-cuts-to-recover?post=487056
How serious should
we take the recent selloff?
Sell
Off Accelerates As Recession Fears Emerge - RIA
A correction is not a crisis.
https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/a-correction-not-a-crisis
What breaks the
stability in credit?
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
Shakespeare National Trust has decided that the bard ‘is not to be’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shakespeare-national-trust-determines-bard-not-be
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