Tuesday, March 18, 2025

The Morning Call---A correction is not a crisis

 

The Morning Call

 

3/18/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-squeeze-higher-soft-data-slumps-dollar-dumps

 

            Potential signals for a rally.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/under-pressure-for-several-weeks-equities-could-be-signaling-a-relief-is-imminent?post=487106

 

            Dips should be traded not invested.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/a-negative-wealth-shock?post=487069

 

            Gold’s rampage.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/650-elephant-golds-rampage-time-overshoot

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

February housing starts rose 11.2% versus projections of -1.9%; preliminary building permits fell 1.2% versus -0.2%.

 

                          The March housing index came in at 39 versus estimates of 42.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/17/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-march-2025

 

                        International

 

The January EU trade balance was +E1 billion versus expectations of +E14 billion.

 

The March EU economic sentiment index came in at 39.8 versus consensus of 39.6; the March German economic sentiment index was 51.6 versus 48.1; the March German current conditions index was -87.6 versus -80.5.

           

                        Other

 

                          Economic uncertainty at extremes.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/economic-policy-uncertainty-at-recorded-maximum

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/17/recession-indicators-real-retail-sales-flat-february-2025

 

                          Monday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-17th-2025/

 

                          Mortgage loans in forbearance decreased in February.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Russia’s Vladimir Putin is demanding a suspension of all arms deliveries to Ukraine during a ceasefire proposed by Donald Trump, according to people familiar. The two leaders are set to hold a call this morning.

 

Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza, killing more than 400 people, Palestinian health authorities said on Tuesday, threatening the complete collapse of a two-month ceasefire as Israel vowed to use more force to free hostages held by Hamas.

 

Allocation to U.S. stocks saw the biggest drop ever in March with concerns over stagflation, trade wars and end of U.S. exceptionalism driving a "bull crash" in sentiment. Global investors raised their allocation to cash to 4.1% from 3.5%, ending a "sell signal" triggered in December, with the speed of the downturn in sentiment being "consistent with end of equity correction.”

 

USTR Greer is imposing a policy process on the reciprocal tariff plan in an attempt to inject order into new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Fed faces triple threat.

              https://www.morningstar.com/economy/fed-faces-triple-threat-inflation-slowing-growth-uncertain-trump-policies-how-will-it-respond

 

              The Fed’s dilemma.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/business/economy-inflation-fed-trump.html

 

            Recession

 

              Will economic detox lead to a recession?

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/14/will-economic-detox-lead-to-a-recession-maybe-not-but-a-long-deep-stock-market-rout-will-see-dotcom-bust/

 

              Real investments remain high.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/17/tariffs-hides-positive-developments

 

            Tariffs

 

              OECD: tariffs will slow global growth, raise inflation.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/u-s-tariff-increases-to-slow-global-economy-boost-inflation-oecd-says-f0966ee1?mod=economy_lead_story

 

     Investing

 

            Why the stock market hates tariffs.

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/03/13/three-things-moar-tariffs/

 

            The Market needs more than rate cuts to recover.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/markets-need-more-than-rate-cuts-to-recover?post=487056

 

            How serious should we take the recent selloff?

            Sell Off Accelerates As Recession Fears Emerge - RIA

 

            A correction is not a crisis.

            https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/a-correction-not-a-crisis

 

            What breaks the stability in credit?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-seeing-surge-clients-hedging-credit-portfolios-proposes-10x-gross-payout-hedges

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The Shakespeare National Trust has decided that the bard ‘is not to be’.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shakespeare-national-trust-determines-bard-not-be

 

 

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