The Morning Call---Confusion reigns supreme

 

The Morning Call

 

3/12/25

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-bullion-jump-bonds-stocks-dumped-stagflation-scare-soars

 

            A topping process in progress?

            NYSE A/D Line: A Topping Process In Progress? - RIA

 

            Or a Market in search of a catalyst for a reversal?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/citi-cuts-us-stocks-raises-china-on-pause-in-us-exceptionalism-m83svz54?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The problem with buying the dip.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theres-big-problem-buying-dip

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-sees-imminent-relief-rally-then-sell-it

 

            Visualizing the last decade in the stock market.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/visualizing-every-day-of-the-us-stock-market-for-the-last-10-years/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 11.2% while purchase applications were up 7.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew at a slower pace than in the prior week.

 

January job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.74 million versus consensus to 7.63 million.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/january-jolts-report-monthly-increases.html

 

February CPI was up 0.2% versus predictions of up 0.3%; core CPI was up 0.2% versus up 0.3%.

           

                        International

 

                          February Japanese PPI was flat versus estimates of -0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Sentiment is not improving.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/why-shouldnt-the-stock-market-be-crashing

 

                          Neither is the consumer balance sheet.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-credit-debt-economy-impact-634eda8d?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-11th-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

US President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect with no exemptions.

 

Canada's Energy Minister said at CERAWeek that Canada may implement non-tariff measures such as restricting oil exports if the trade war with the US escalates and that ethanol is absolutely on the list of potential retaliatory tariffs being considered. Canada's Energy Minister also said Canada will respond shortly if tariffs come into play and will wait and see on tariffs, as well as noted that Canada does not want to provoke or escalate and seeks a positive outcome.

 

EU Commission launched countermeasures on US imports in which it will allow the suspension of existing 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US to lapse on April 1st, while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures on US exports. Furthermore, it stated that EU countermeasures could apply to US goods exports worth up to EUR 26bln to match the economic scope of the US tariffs but added the EU remains ready to work with the US administration to find a negotiated solution.

 

Australian PM Albanese reiterated they will not impose reciprocal tariffs on the US and will continue to engage with the US on tariffs.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The confusion wrought by Trump policies.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-stop-n-go-n-stop/?src=news

 

Here is another commentary on the current state of confusion. The author   admits that the economic stats still look sound but worries about the impact of the confusion on consumer/business behavior/decisions on the economy. I agree that the Donald could accomplish his goals with less drama but, in fairness, we can’t yet blame him for a recession that hasn’t occurred.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/can-americas-resilient-economy-endure-trump-2-0/

 

              Though clearly it is not for want of trying.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/hello-automakers-trump-hikes-canada-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-to-50-percent/

 

              And now, a positive word about Trump policies.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/uncharted-waters-how-president-trump-can-navigate-toward-more-resilient-economy

 

I am an enthusiastic supporter of DOGE. But to be sure, a change in political direction generally means taking those changes too far. This is a good example, though I would characterize the articles title as a bit hyperbolic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-11/the-war-on-government-statistics-has-quietly-begun?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                           House passes full year stop gap budget; now the senate.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/house-vote-stopgap-amid-trump-massie-feud-freedom-caucus-comes-around-senate-looms

 

 

     Investing

 

            The era of easy everything is over.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/11/not-all-tariffs

 

            Goldman lowers 2025 earnings outlook.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bad-earnings-news-will-dominate

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Measly measles.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/the-daily-chart-measly-measles.php

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.