3/24/25
The Market
Technical
The S&P held above (1) its recent lows as well
as (2) the upper boundary of the downtrend off the February 19 high. While the
latest pin action doesn’t ‘feel’ like a bottom, I guess we have to be happy the
stocks aren’t being pounded every day. Until the recent March 13 low is tested,
I think doing nothing is the right long term strategy. Traders might want to participate.
Is a bottom beginning to form?
We start to rally on March 23rd.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-start-rally-again-march-23rd
The long bond was up on the week. While it failed
to make a higher high (the bad news), it did manage to remain above its 100 DMA
and in a very short term uptrend off its January 14 low (the good news). ‘the
long bond has found at least a temporary bottom; and while this move has all
the makings of a major change in momentum, it …….still has work to do before
assuming a major bottom has been made.’ That could be good
news (lower borrowing costs [mortgage rates] or bad news (impending recession).
Unfortunately, I am clueless as to which.
GLD made yet another a new higher high last week. It
remains well within a very short term uptrend and in uptrends across all other
time frames as well as above all DMAs. If you held on to it, (unlike me), congratulations.
Hang in there.
While the dollar managed to close higher on the
week, it is nonetheless in a confirmed downtrend, remaining below all DMAs and
in a very short term downtrend. The only positive that I can see is that it is holding
above an uptrend line in its relative strength indicator (bottom of the page).
Friday in the charts.
The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.
Rising risk of foreign pullback from US
equities.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/risk-rising-of-a-foreign-pullback-from-the-sp-500/
Ahhhh…flexibility.
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
Last week’s stats were mixed though the primary
indicators were very positive (three plus, one negative). This is the third
week in a row of relatively upbeat data offsetting that four week run of poor
numbers. I am going to leave the red light flashing; but if this week is
positive, I will like switch the warning light from red to yellow.
No inflation stats in the US but there were three upbeat
datapoints among the generally favorable numbers coming from the rest of the
world. That keeps my inflation forecast at risk.
Bottom line, I am holding to my ‘muddle through’
economy and maintaining my (wobbling) conviction that inflation has seen its
lows.
Overshadowing all of this is the Trump
revolution which keeps the level of uncertainty extremely high---adding to my
lack of my confidence in my forecast.
US
The February Chicago national activity index came in
at .18 versus forecasts of .08.
International
The March German flash manufacturing PMI was 48.3
versus projections of 47.0; the flash services PMI was 50.2 versus 51.6; the
flash composite PMI was 50.9 versus 51.0; the March EU flash manufacturing PMI
was 48.7 versus 48.2; the flash services PMI was 50.4 versus 51.0; the flash composite
PMI was 50.4 versus 50.8; the March UK flash manufacturing PMI was 44.6 versus
projections of 46.4; the flash services PMI was 53.2 versus 50.9; the flash composite
PMI was 52.0 versus 50.3.
Other
The latest Q1 nowcasts.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/q1-gdp-tracking-wide-range_21.html
The mortgage delinquency rate increased in
February.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/intercontinental-exchange-mortgage.html
Regional manufacturing new orders series deteriorating.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/regional-new-orders-deteriorate-sales.html
Monetary Policy
The
Fed is always behind the curve.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/fed-folly-on-full-display?post=487789
Fiscal Policy
No
one in Washington is serious about spending cuts.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/no-one-in-washington-is-serious-about-the-debt/
Recession
This analyst believes recession is inevitable as DOGE
works its way through government waste.
Tariffs
April
2, Liberation Day; expect to suffer.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trumps-tax-hike-liberation-day-day-begins-april-2-expect-to-suffer/
Geopolitics
Progress
on Ukraine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/waltz-reveals-topics-us-russia-talks-they-kick-riyadh
Investing
Latest from BofA.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-sell-signal-over-april-2-looms
Worry more about certainty than uncertainty.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worry-more-about-certainty-uncertainty
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
Who
was St. Patrick and why does he have a day?
Who was Saint Patrick and why does he have a
holiday?
All
governments suffer a recurring problem.
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