3/17/25
The Market
Technical
The S&P ended what was a lousy week on an up
note---for the third time in as many weeks. However, in the process it reset
its 200 DMA from support to resistance. As you can see, it may challenge the
downtrend off its February high---‘may’ being the operative word. If not, there
remains that vast no-man’s land below where support is marked by (1) the 23.6%
Fibonacci retracement level [~5225] and (2) the lower boundary of the S&P’s
short term uptrend [~5112].
The long bond was down on the week. The good news
is that it tested its 100 DMA (now support) and bounced. While I didn’t mark
it, it also remained in a very short term uptrend off the January 14 low. ‘the
long bond has found at least a temporary bottom; and while this move has all
the makings of a major change in momentum, it …….still has work to do before
assuming a major bottom has been made.’ That could be good
news (lower borrowing costs [mortgage rates] or bad news (impending recession).
Unfortunately, I am clueless as to which.
GLD made a new higher high last week, negating my
concern regarding the lower high put in in the prior week. It
remains well within a very short term uptrend and in uptrends across all other
time frames as well as above all DMAs.
The dollar maintained its downward plunge (thanks
Donald), leaving it below all DMAs and in a very short term downtrend.
Friday in the charts.
The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trading-desk-reflects-nauseating-rollercoaster-week
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
Another week of positive stats including the
primary indicators (two positive, zero down). Given the paucity of numbers, I
am leaving the red light flashing. But this is clearly a hopeful sign.
That said, layoffs and tariffs haven’t gone away. So
they will continue to negatively affect economic growth.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bear-case-consumers-reduce-their-spending-causing-recession
Or not.
The really bright spot was the inflation numbers
which comprised the two upbeat primary indicators. That is clearly in
contrast to my higher inflation forecast. But as Ed Yardini and the below point
out, hidden in those figures were some not so optimistic stats. Nonetheless, I
think that my outlook is at risk.
Counterpoint.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/03/inflation-update.html
Overseas, the data was overwhelmingly negative,
including the inflation numbers---reinforcing my higher inflation call but
contributing to my concern that economic may be something less than ‘muddle
through.’
Bottom line, I am clinging to my ‘muddle through’
economy and maintaining my (wobbling) firm conviction that inflation has seen
its lows.
Overshadowing all of this is the Trump
revolution which keeps the level of uncertainty extremely high---adding to my
lack of my confidence in my forecast.
US
February retail sales were up 0.2% versus forecasts
of +0.6%; ex autos, they were up 0.3% versus 0.4%.
The March NY Fed manufacturing index was -20.0
versus predictions of -0.75.
International
Other
Consumer sentiment sinks.
Friday in the economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-13th-2025/
Overnight News
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he’s not
worried about the recent downturn that’s wiped trillions of dollars from the
equities market as the US seeks to reshape its economic policies. “I’ve been in
the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are
healthy, they are normal,” Bessent said Sunday on NBC’s Meet The Press. “I ‘m
not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in
place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great.”
Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin will speak
tomorrow as the US presses for a deal on Ukraine. Trump said much of the
discussion will be about territory.
US Senate voted 54-46 to pass the stopgap funding
bill to keep the government funded through September 30th, while President
Trump signed the budget appropriations bill into law.
Fiscal Policy
The
economic harm that is coming.
https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/the-economic-harm-that-is-coming
Recession
Where
to look for early signs of recession.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/recession-risk-economic-slowdown-signs-0b9d50c2?mod=economy_lead_story
Another.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-quick-and-dirty-forecasting-model.html
Tariffs
Steel
and aluminum tariffs by the numbers.
Geopolitics
EU recognizes that Ukraine becoming a NATO
member is off the table.
Investing
Looking for safe havens.
On an optimistic note.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment