Thursday, December 13, 2012

Rockwell Collins (COL) 2012 Review

Rockwell Collins designs manufacturers and supports aviation electronics and mobile and airborne communication systems, navigation, display and automatic flight control systems to multinational corporations and defense and electronic system products for airborne, ground and shipboard applications for domestic government agencies.  The company has grown earnings and dividends 16-18% annually over the last five years while earning a 35%+ return on equity.  Despite the impact of the economic malaise on the airline and private aircraft industries, earnings have resumed their long term growth rate due to:

(1) it is the largest supplier of communications and avionic equipment to both the commercial and military markets,

(2) it benefits from spending cuts as focus shifts to upgrading existing equipment,

(3) stock buybacks.

 Negatives:

(1)    a majority of its contracts are fixed price creating a problem if there are cost overruns,

(2)    its exposure to the cyclical aerospace market,

(3)    a large percentage of its sales are overseas so it subject to foreign laws, regulations and policies.

COL is rated A+ by Value Line, has a debt to equity ratio of 38% and its stock yields 2.5%

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2002

COL          2.5%            5%             25%             7
Ind Ave     1.9                9*              24               NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2002      Margin       Rating

COL          38%           36%            2                14%           A+
Ind Ave      37              16             NA               8              NA

* the majority of companies in COL industry do not pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: COL made good initial progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its October 2007 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, COL is in an uptrend (straight blue line is the lower boundary).  Intermediate term, it is in a trading range (purple lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a 75% position in COL.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $41; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $90.



12/12`

No comments:

Post a Comment