The Averages (23764, 2870) drifted lower throughout most of the day, then sold off hard into the close. Both of the indices ended back below their 4/17 highs. That would suggest a loss of upside momentum; although stocks were getting overbought, so some consolidation is to be expected. However. any follow through to the downside would leave them in the prior 4/17-4/21 trading range.
No ‘V’ shaped recovery.
The latest of BofA derivatives specialist.
The stock market isn’t the economy……….but.
GLD, TLT and UUP reversed Monday’s pin action (GLD and TLT up and UUP down). All their charts remain strong which remains a bit confusing. They shouldn’t be trading in unison to the upside unless investors are nervous---and, yesterday’s performance notwithstanding, equity investors have been anything but nervous to date.
Tuesday in the charts.
Yesterday’s stats were not great but most were better than expected. Month to date retail chain store sales declined in the past week but at a dramatically slower rate than the prior week; the April budget deficit and the April small business optimism index were above downgraded expectations; April CPI was (down) in line, but core CPI was really bad.
The April budget deficit was a real showstopper.
And if you think that is a big number, get a load of the new house bailout extravaganza.
When the coronavirus is gone, the debt will remain.
What the Fed has wrought.
The Fed now buying bond ETF’s.
An optimist’s take on recovery.
Overseas, the March Japanese leading economic indicators were slightly above forecasts while April Chinese CPI declined almost double estimates.
Senate adds fuel the US/China tension fire.
***overnight update on coronavirus.
Bottom line. the budget deficit is exploding which, I believe, will ultimately result in the crowding out of capital investment by US industry. That is a negative for the long term secular growth rate of the US economy and corporate profitability. The Fed is throwing cash at the financial system which, I believe, has, is and will continue to result in the mispricing and misallocation of assets. That too is a negative for the long term secular growth rate of the US economy and corporate profitability.
None of this matters as long as investors believe that Fed supplied liquidity will assure higher security prices. ‘As long as’ being the operative words.
Value versus growth investing.
The latest from Stanley Druckenmiller.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) declares $0.90/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.311/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
This Week’s Data
Weekly mortgage applications rose 0.3% while purchase applications were up 10.6%.
Month to date retail chain store sales declined in the past week but at a dramatically slower rate.
The April budget deficit was $738 billion versus forecasts of $747 billion.
April PPI came in at -1.3% versus estimates of -0.5%; core PPI was -0.3% versus 0.0%.
The March UK trade balance was -L6.7 billion versus expectations of -L1.7 billion; March industrial output was -4.2% versus -5.6%; manufacturing production was -4.6% versus-6.0%; March GDP was -5.8% versus expectations of -8.0%; Q1 GDP was -2.0% versus -2.5%; Q1 business investment was 0.0% versus -2.5%.
What I am reading today
Dealing with uncertainty.
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