Monday, May 18, 2020

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P was on a roller coaster last week, finishing within the 4/17-4/21 trading range---which continues to exhibit a magnetic pull.  Note the double top.

Though down on Friday, the long bond was up on the week.  In recent trading, it has made a higher high and a lower low; so, we need to pay attention to how this discrepancy gets resolved.

            Gold had a great week, making a new higher high and confirming that momentum remains to the upside.

            The dollar also had a good week.  In the process, it broke a trend of lower highs making  a slightly higher high.  I would like to see some follow through to the upside.  If that occurs, then, like GLD, it will confirm upside momentum.

            Wednesday, the VIX broke a month long very short term downtrend.  Even though it sold off on Thursday and Friday, it was not enough to reestablish the downtrend.  That supports the notion that the Averages’ 4/17-4/21 trading range is constraining upside momentum.



            ***overnight update on coronavirus.

            Promising coronavirus vaccine trial data.

            In praise of individual responsibility.
            Goldman cuts S&P earnings forecast.

                If you didn’t see last night’s Powell 60 Minutes interview, here is a recap.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


   This Week’s Data



            Q1 Japanese (preliminary) GDP growth rate was -0.9% versus estimates of -1.2%; capital expenditures were -0.5% versus -1.5%; private consumption was -0.7% versus -1.6%.


            US oil rig count at an eleven year low.

What I am reading today


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