The Morning Call
6/25/18
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P took a rest last week but retained its upward momentum---remaining
above both moving averages and in uptrends across all timeframes. The one factor to watch is the rollover of
its 100 day moving average which appears to be headed for a crossover of its
200 day moving average---a negative technical signal.
The
long bond unsuccessfully challenged its 200 day moving average but remained
near it. It continues to trade above its
100 day moving average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend. Importantly, it is meandering between the
shrinking range topped by its 200 day moving average and the upper boundary of
its short term downtrend and limited on the downside by its 100 day moving
average and the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.
The
dollar re-established its very short term uptrend last week. It remained above both moving averages and in
a short term uptrend. So Friday’s minor
decline notwithstanding, it maintains good momentum to the upside.
Gold
continues its abysmal performance.
Clearly, no one seems interested in it as a safety trade.
The
VIX continued its bounce off the lower boundary of its short term trading
range---suggesting that it may have hit a bottom. However, it unsuccessfully challenged its 200
day moving average (now resistance)---suggesting a new volatility regime is not
in the making.
Fundamental
Headlines
Latest
on trade with China (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
May Chicago national activity index was -.15 versus estimates of +.37
International
June
German business expectations came in at 98.6 versus forecasts of 98.1, current
conditions were 105.1 versus 105.7 and business climate was 101.8, in line,
Other
Update
on student loans (medium):
What
I am reading today
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