The Morning Call
3/20/17
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P continues its stellar performance.
It is in uptrends across all timeframes and is above its 100 and 200 day
moving averages. Until something changes
in this picture, it seems reasonable to assume that the S&P will challenge the
upper boundary of its long term uptrend.
The
long Treasury rebounded last week, but off of a depressed level. It is still only slightly above the lower
boundary of its short term trading range, while well below its 100 and 200 day
moving averages and within a very short term downtrend. The burden of proof is on those expecting
lower rates.
GLD
is again trying to transform what has been a consistently ugly chart over the
last seven months. Last week, it managed
to rally above its 100 day moving average (now support); but still remains in a
short term downtrend and below its 200 day moving average,
Last
week’s performance of the dollar was the reverse of TLT, as you might expect
(lower rates = lower dollar). However,
its chart is a bit more ambiguous. By
that I mean that while it finished above its 200 day moving average and within
a short term uptrend it ended below its 100 day moving average which reverts to
resistance.
The
VIX tried twice last week to push below the lower boundary of its very short
term uptrend. While it was able to do so
intraday, it wasn’t successful on a closing basis. That leaves open the question as to whether
the period of complacency is ending.
Fundamental
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Economics
This Week’s Data
The
February Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at .34 versus January’s
reading of -.02.
Other
***overnight,
Greece will likely miss the deadline for achieving results that would provide for
receiving bail out funds’ UK PM May triggered Brexit; the G20 failed to renew
pledge to resist all forms of protectionism.
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
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