The Morning Call
8/22/16
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
At
this point, one can’t challenge the directional bias of the S&P---the
moving averages as well as the trend lines across all timeframes all point
higher. That said, volume has been light
and momentum is slowing. Notice on the
right hand side of the chart: once prices broke to a new high, they made a
brief advance then stalled for two weeks; then made another short hop up and
again went sideways for another two weeks.
This slowdown in momentum could certainly prove temporary. But it is something to watch.
TLT
remains above its 100 day moving average and within very short term, short
term, intermediate term and long term uptrends; so the trend in prices (rates)
is up (down) and will be until, at the very least the very short term uptrend
is broken. However, notice that the long
Treasury has made three lower highs in a row and it has fallen out of that
pennant formation (a technical negative).
I am not saying that bond prices are about to go lower; I am saying that
there are indications that they might. Again,
it is something to watch.
Aside
from not being in a long term uptrend, the GLD chart looks a lot like the
TLT---having made a new high in early July then building a pennant formation
(lower highs, higher lows) since. Based
on the trend lines, there is no reason to question GLD’s direction at the
moment. But like TLT, this is a chart to
be watched.
It
sure looks like the VIX is going to challenge the lower boundary of its
intermediate term trading range. That is
good news for stocks. The bad news is
that the VIX is only one point (10%) away from that boundary (support
level). That doesn’t mean that it can’t
go lower. But like every other chart on
this page, it needs to be watched for signs of a directional change.
Fundamental
Over
the weekend, Stanley Fisher, vice chair of the Fed, gave a very hawkish speech.
Summary of recent Fed statements
(medium):
Investing for Survival
Sticking
with your investment discipline.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Medivation
(Aggressive Growth Portfolio) to be acquired by Pfizer for $81.50.
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
July Chicago National Activity Index was reported at .27 versus the prior
revised reading of .05.
Other
Quote
of the day (short):
The
latest from Jeffrey Snider (medium):
Politics
Domestic
Oh, good. Princeton has created for all of us a new
guide to avoid gender binary hate speech.
What for changes in this newsletter.
(yeah, right)
International War Against Radical
Islam
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