Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

3/2/15

The Market

           

    Technical

        Monday Morning Chartology      

            The S&P finished in uptrends across all timeframes and above its 50 day moving average.  As you can see, it has been hugging the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.  While it has technically broken above that boundary, there has been no jail break to the upside.  If that upper boundary continues to be a magnet, I could very well reinstate it.  More important, it would limit the upside from current levels.

            Regression to trend (short and a must read):

            http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Regression-to-Trend.php

            The long Treasury hopefully has found a short term bottom.  It remains within uptrends across all timeframes and above its 50 day moving average.  Bonds continue to be the largest investment in our ETF Portfolio.

            GLD has held its short term uptrend, though just barely.  But a win is win.  GLD is also within an intermediate term downtrend and below its 50 day moving average.  Notice that it breaks above the 50 day moving average and the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend at 117.75.  Pushing through those two resistance points would be cause for out Portfolios to Add back the shares Sold at 119.16.

            The VIX closed down on Friday; a little unusual for a down day in the Market.  It finished within a short term trading range, an intermediate term downtrend and below its 50 day moving average.  For traders, I continue to think that this is a good level to be buying protection.

    Fundamental

   

            Citi on global QE (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-01/are-central-banks-creating-deflation

            Austrian bank announces capital shortfall; ‘bail in’ likely (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-01/spectacular-developments-austria-bail-arrives-after-%E2%82%AC76-billion-bad-bank-capital-hol

            Shadow banking liquidity plunging (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-01/more-flash-crashes-come-shadow-banking-liquidity-collapses

            Eurozone turning the corner? (short):

            http://blog.yardeni.com/2015/03/eurozone-turning-corner-excerpt.html

      Investing for Survival

            Ten things you should know about your portfolios performance (medium):

            http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-things-you-should-know-about-portfolio-performance-2015-02-04

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

           
South Jersey misses by $0.19

·         South Jersey (NYSE:SJI): Q4 EPS of $0.93 misses by $0.19.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            January personal income rose 0.3% versus expectations of +0.4%; personal spending fell 0.2% versus estimates that it would be flat; the core PCE price deflator was up 0.1%, in line.

   Other

            ***overnight, February EU consumer prices dropped 0.3%; manufacturing PMI was less than expected; unemployment fell to 11.2%; the UK PMI was up.

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

http://cafehayek.com/2015/02/quotation-of-the-day-1276.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

  International War Against Radical Islam

            This article is a bit long but it is an absolute must read.  Its subject is how NATO intervention in Libya destroyed the country:

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-27/forgotten-war-%E2%80%93-understanding-incredible-debacle-left-behind-nato-libya