Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

1/5/15

The Market

           

    Technical

            The S&P just couldn’t hold the break out above the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.  I called the break last Tuesday; but given the pin action since, I am reversing that judgment.  It now appears that the move above that upper boundary was a false flag.  The good news is that the S&P remains within uptrends across all timeframes.  The bad news is that the upper boundary (resistance) may hold the rate of the current advance to a very slow pace.

            The S&P finishes the year on a down note.  What happens next? (short):

            http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/12/31/sp-500-finishes-the-year-down-1.html

            Where does the current market now stand in the history of secular bull and bear markets? (medium):

            http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Secular-Bull-and-Bear-Markets.php

            The Market performance following a down Market from Thanksgiving to New Year’s (short):

            http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/DJIA-Down-Thanksgiving-to-Yearend-Up-Big-Following-Year

            The long Treasury continues its steady rise, closing within uptrends in all timeframes.  What this means is still a question---slowing economy or a safe haven?  In the meantime, it provides great support for the municipal ETF’s in our ETF Portfolio.

            GLD could not maintain a very short term uptrend (orange line) and remains in downtrends for both the intermediate and long term.  The only bright spot is that it is still trading within a short term trading range.

            The VIX continues to trade within a range that goes back to 2013---providing little guidance on the longer term direction in the Market. 

    Fundamental

   

            I reviewed all the economic indicators released during my vacation.  The results were basically balanced both in overall volume and among the primary indicators.  So our economy continues to progress slowly and still fighting off the effects of poor performances in the rest of the world.

            December EU manufacturing PMI rose slightly while the Chinese PMI fell.

            The latest from John Mauldin (long as usual, but also insightful as usual):

            http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/mauldin_010415.php

       Investing for Survival

            Trying to ‘beat the market’ (medium):

            http://pragcap.com/beat-the-average-investor-by-not-trying-to-beat-the-market

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Oil prices: larger supply or lower demand? (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-01/occams-oil

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

http://cafehayek.com/2015/01/quotation-of-the-day-1220.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

  International

            Oliver Stone exploring what occurred in Ukraine (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/oliver-stones-new-movie-ukraine-cia-coup-coming-theater-near-you

            The latest from Mario Draghi, dreamweaver (medium):

            http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-eurozone-economic-union-by-mario-draghi-2015-1

            EU economists skeptical of bond buying program (medium):

            http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3496a4fa-91aa-11e4-bfe8-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3Nx1wCo9e

                        Germany sees Greek exit of EU as manageable (medium):

            http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-03/germany-sees-greek-euro-exit-as-manageable-outcome-spiegel-says.html