Thursday, June 19, 2014

Tiffany (TIF) 2014 Review

Tiffany & Co is an internationally renowned retailer, designer and manufacturer of fine jewelry, silverware, china, crystal and gift items. The company has grown profits and dividends at an 11-22% rate over the last 10 years earning a 14-19% return on equity.  While revenues and profits are impacted by economic activity, TIF has weathered difficult times well and should sustain an above average growth rate as a result of:

(1) higher sales made possible by rising capital expenditures in its distribution, manufacturing and diamond sourcing process,

(2) increased penetration in international markets,

(3) a growing customer base resulting from opening a line of new smaller stores    with lower priced, higher margin products,

(4) stock buyback program.

Negatives:

(1) earnings from its foreign operations are exposed to currency fluctuations,

(2) recent disruptions in foreign capital markets could impact its ability to financial future growth,

(3) its customers are sensitive to macroeconomic events.

TIF is rated A+ by Value Line, carries a 22% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.6%.

    Statistical Summary

                Stock       Dividend       Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

TIF            1.6%             9               31%              10
Ind Ave     1.7                16*            27                NA 

                Debt/                      EPS Down       Net        Value Line
               Equity         ROE      Since 2004    Margin       Rating

TIF            22             18%           2                 14%          A+
Ind Ave      23            18             NA                6              NA.

*many retailers do not pay a dividend.

     Chart

            Note: TIF stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its October 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  Short term it is an uptrend (brown line).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a 50% position through a fairly circuitous route.  In 2009, it Bought a full position in TIF.  However, in mid-2011, the company had a serious earnings hiccup and the holding was Sold.  In mid-2012, after the news was digested and the outlook became a bit more visible, a one half position was repurchased.   





6/14

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