The Morning Call
6/9/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P continues to drive for the hoop (upper boundary of its long term
uptrend). It is well within uptrends
across all timeframes: short (1862-2029), intermediate (1813-2613) and long
(754-1966). Volume is low, divergences
are high; but there is no percentages in fighting the tape.
The
probabilities of a reversal in June or July (short):
The
chart of the long Treasury is getting a bit messy. While it is in a short term uptrend (brown
lines) and an intermediate term trading range (purple lines), the question is,
was the successful challenge of the upper boundary of the recent intermediate
term downtrend (green line) a head fake?
In addition, can TLT hold above its 50 day moving average (red line)? If TLT price can’t get back above the former
upper boundary of the intermediate term downtrend (green line) and breaks the
50 day moving average (red line), it would reinforce the stock market’s view
that the economy’s rate of improvement may be picking up. If not, it would leave bond investors in
direct conflict with stock investors.
GLD
remains in very short term, short term and intermediate term downtrends and
below its 50 day moving average.
However, it is nearing the lower boundary of its long term trading
range. Further, if the stock market is
correct (i.e. the economy is getting better) and perhaps even more important, if
the bond market reverses itself and reinforces the stock market’s scenario,
gold should cease being the sick sister of these charts.
The
VIX is collapsing. It is within short
and intermediate term downtrends and well below its 50 day moving average. It is also drawing near the lower boundary of
its long term trading range. Notice the
last time it touched that boundary.
The
fear and greed index (short):
Stock
performance in May and what follows (short):
What
lies beneath the bullish stampede (medium):
Update
on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’ (short):
Fundamental
Do
you have too much invested in US stocks? (short):
Goldman
on what is driving this market (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Update
on big four economic indicators (short):
Ten
essential economic truths (medium):
Despite
the positive lead in, even this economic bull is starting to worry (medium):
Morgan
Stanley’s bear case on the economy (medium):
The
economic source problem of the EU (medium):
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/06/troika-wsj-nyt-keep-public-befuddled-austerity-deflation.html
More
on the ECB’s recent decision (short):
David
Stockman on the ECB moves and the likely outcome (medium and today’s must
read):
Why the economy won’t
heal (medium):
Consumer
credit has the fifth largest monthly jump
in history (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International
Thoughts
on D Day (short):
Bank
of China raises currency peg (medium):
Japan
prints big first quarter GDP increase (medium):
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