Tuesday, November 5, 2013

The Morning Call---Digesting an overbought Market

The Morning Call

11/5/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15639, S&P 1767) moved higher yesterday.  Both remained within their short term (15209-20209, 1703-1859), intermediate term (15209-20209, 1619-2201) and  long term uptrends (5015-17000, 728-1850).

            Volume was almost nonexistent; breadth improved.  The VIX fell, remaining within its short term trading range---though it is nearing the lower boundary of its short term trading range---and its intermediate term downtrend.

            The long Treasury rose, ending within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.  It continues to build a reverse head and shoulders pattern

            GLD fell but remained within its very short term uptrend.  However, it is still within short and intermediate term downtrends.  It is also building a head and shoulders formation.

Bottom line:  the indices are in uptrends across on timeframes, though the Dow is somewhat suspect in my opinion.  The relative calm trading over the last five sessions is most likely stocks working off an overbought condition through time versus direction.  Upside potential, in my opinion, is marked by the upper boundaries of the Averages (17000/1850) long term uptrends.  If the downside is simply Fair Value (11575/1436), the risk/reward from current levels is not all the attractive.

A trader still might want to play for another leg up but I would do so only if tight stops are used.  My preferred strategy at these levels is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

If one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range, our Portfolios will act accordingly.

            The latest from Todd Harrison (medium):

            November sentiment survey (medium):

            Anatomy of a bubble (medium):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Only one US datapoint yesterday: August factory orders fell 0.1% versus consensus of an increase.  Overseas, there were a number of reports: Eurozone PMI was up slightly, UK construction PMI was quite strong and Chinese nonmanufacturing PMI rose more than at anytime in the last 13 months.  Clearly the factory orders number was not what we wanted (and likely accounted for early Market weakness) but the international stats were a plus.

            ***over night the EU Commission lowered its 2014 growth forecast for Europe, the October UK service PMI surged and the Chinese premier warned of loose money.

            Also playing to the positive side was another multiple point decline in oil prices which have been falling since mid October.  Historically, more often than not, lower oil prices were sign of economic weakness---which would be a negative.  However, this time around it is more a function of rising supply.  As you know, this is one of the secular pluses that I list in every Closing Bell.  More supply and lower (gasoline) prices (1) give consumers an increase is disposable income and (2) provide economic inducement for manufacturers to locate in the US where energy is abundant and attractively priced.

Bottom line:  I remain confident in the Fair Values generated by our Valuation Model---meaning that stocks are fundamentally overvalued.  However technically, stocks seem like they want another leg up.  I certainly wouldn’t argue against it. 

That said, I am not a trader and couldn’t sleep at night if I tried to get cute for a further move up.  I think it makes more sense to take advantage of current high prices  and use this opportunity to either weed out the losers or book some profit in a highly successful investment.
             
            Update on valuation (medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            The latest from Doug Kass (medium):

            The Fed is trapped (medium):

            Income redistribution by the Fed (medium):
           
            Ken Rogoff warns of wealth taxes (medium):
            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-04/ken-rogoff-warns-wealth-taxes-arent-enough


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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