Thursday, November 21, 2013

The Morning Call---Clueless

The Morning Call

11/21/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15900, S&P 1781) continued to rest yesterday, closing down modestly on the day; but remaining within uptrends across all time frames: short term (15339-20339, 1723-1877), intermediate term (15339-20339, 1633-2215) and long term (5015-17000, 728-1850).           
   
            Volume was flat; breadth mixed.  The VIX was up but much less than I would have thought.  It finished within a very long short term trading range (hence providing little guidance on Market direction) and an intermediate term downtrend.

            A different take on breadth (medium and a must read):

            The long Treasury got whacked, reflecting the confusion that came from the latest Fed minutes.  For the moment, it remains in a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

            GLD also took it in the snoot, reinforcing the technical notion that the direction of a break from a pennant pattern generally portends future price movement.  It closed within short and intermediate downtrends.

Bottom line:  the Averages remain on hold either building strength for another test of 16000/1800 or churning through a few remaining buyers before rolling over.  I can’t believe that the bulls buying power has faded sufficiently that another attempt at 16000/1800 isn’t in the cards.  Indeed, even many long term bears think that any rollover in securities prices will be preceded by a blow off top.  

That said, the technicals continue to weaken; and, were I a trader, that would make me very skittish about playing for another move to the upside.

My recommendation continues to be to take advantage of the current high prices and any additional move to the upside to sell any stock that has been a disappointment and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

If one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range, our Portfolios will act accordingly.

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            We got a lot of US economic datapoints yesterday, mostly positive though there were a couple bad numbers: weekly mortgage applications were down but the all important purchase applications rose nicely, October CPI was very tame, October retail sales were better than expected, September inventories were up but unfortunately business sales were down and existing home sales dropped but that was anticipated.

            An in depth look at retail sales (medium):

            ***over night, both the EU composite output reading and the Chinese flash PMI came in below expectations.

            That gave a positive bias to early trading, though spiking interest rates in China and caution in front of the release of the minutes of the latest Fed meeting kept enthusiasm under wraps.

            Two o’clock brought the release of the aforementioned minutes.  After reading the most excruciatingly confusing set of minutes I have ever seen. everyone’s eyes glazed over and they started hitting the bids.  By confusing, I mean the FOMC debated the pros and cons of every possible iteration of future Fed policy over every possible time frame but came to no conclusion---leaving investors with that ‘is that all there is?’ kind of feeling.  In addition, they elected not to change a sentence on the likelihood of future tapering (sooner versus later) ---which also didn’t help investor sentiment.

                And Hilsenrath’s take (medium):

                More on student loans (medium):

                QE and the deficit (short):           

            Bottom line: my take is one that I have already put forward.  The Fed knows that it has its dick stuck in a wringer (i.e. its balance sheet has reached an untenable level) and it has no clue, no clue how to extricate itself.  So it spends its time fiddling over angels dancing on a pin’s head while Rome burns (to mix metaphors). 

Given the Market’s reaction, it supports my thesis that sooner or later investors will likely take matters in their own hands, drive long rates up to a level that the Fed will have no choice but to follow---the operative words being ‘my thesis’ and ‘sooner or later’.  So we just have to wait and see if the consternation expressed in yesterday’s Market reaction has any follow through.  If there is, then stocks are probably not going to do well.   

            Can the Dow make and hold 16000? (medium):

            The role of luck in investing (short):

            For the bulls (medium):

            Goldman’s outlook for 2014 (long):

      Investing for Survival

            Making your own investment policy statement (medium and a must read):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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