The Morning Call--Late

 

The Morning Call

 

6/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-pumpndump-powell-pessimism-trumps-iran-optimism

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Business cycle indicators (presented graphically)

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/industrial-and-manufacturing-production-real-retail-sales-business-cycle-indicators

 

                          Wolf Richter goes into detail on the retail sales number.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/17/my-thoughts-about-those-retail-sales/

 

                          Update on Q2 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/solid-rebound-still-expected-for-us-growth-for-q2-gdp-report/

 

A deep dive into the housing market and the extent to which it’s components can be used as a leading economic indicator.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/06/why-hasnt-housing-downturn-caused.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC wrapped up its June meeting yesterday. It left rates unchanged but the accompanying narrative was slightly more hawkish.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-first-take-and-wall-street-reactions

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The good, the bad and the ugly in the bill, beautiful bill. What is really ugly about this assessment is that it says nothing about the lack of significant spending cuts.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/steve-moore-good-bad-ugly-senates-big-beautiful-tax-bill

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              The US Court of International Trade made the right decision.

              https://www.fusionaier.org/post/the-us-court-of-international-trade-made-the-right-call

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Israel’s war with Iran isn’t one conflict; it is three.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-18/israel-is-fighting-iran-and-weakening-russia-and-china?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            The gold boom has legs.

            https://www.aei.org/economics/the-gold-price-boom-has-legs/

 

            The June report on the outlook for S&P dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in-june.html

 

            Trading the Iran/Israel conflict.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/06/18/iran-israel-conflict-likely-impact-market

 

            Supply/demand forces in the equity and bond markets.

            https://www.ft.com/content/10551778-a4d9-4d1d-8e1e-ac51fae554c8

 

            A framework for investing.

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2025/06/16/bayesian-edge-investing-a-framework-for-smarter-portfolio-allocation/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The MAGA coalition won’t survive a bunker buster in Iran.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-06-18/israel-iran-war-maga-coalition-won-t-survive-a-trump-bunker-buster?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Will we or won’t we?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-us-aid-israel-by-attacking-iran/

 

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