The Morning Call---How onerous will tariffs be?

 

The Morning Call

 

6/25/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/ceasefire-sends-nasdaq-100-record-high-bitcoin-jumps-gold-oil-dump

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Upside pain is huge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/upside-pain-huge

 

            Counterpoint.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-says-short-squeeze-sell

 

            State of the Markets.

            https://bilello.blog/2025/the-state-of-the-markets-june-2025

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 1.1% while purchase applications were flat.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                          The April Case Shiller home price index rose 0.8%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/24/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2025

 

                          The June Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -7, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/24/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-remained-soft-june-2025

 

The June consumer confidence index was reported at 93 versus forecasts of 100.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/24/consumer-confidence-retreats-in-june

 

                        International

 

The April Japanese leading economic indicators were 104.2 versus predictions of 103.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          Productivity gains are coming.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/productivity-gains-are-coming/

 

                          Hotel occupancy rate declines 2.4% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/06/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-24-year.html

 

                          Problems in the housing market.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/real-estate-recession-you-havent-heard-about-yet

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              To cut or not to cut?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-fed-cut-rates-sooner-than-recently-expected/

 

              The Fed is irrelevant and will continue to be.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-turkey-leg/?src=news

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              It is not the size of the deficit/debt; it is the size of the spending.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/06/24/balanced_budgets_one_of_the_most_fraudulent_notions_in_economics_1118075.html

 

            Inflation

 

I noted in this week’s Monday Morning Chartology that a number of economists who I respect were suggesting that (1) tariff inflation had been under control to date because of massive front running building inventories prior to the effective date of the tariffs and (2) that play had run its course and the surge in tariff related inflation was upon us. Well, this article contends that foreign companies are cutting prices much more than anticipated, so that the ultimate impact of tariffs may be less than almost anyone expected.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shocking-chart-shows-why-there-has-been-no-tariff-inflation

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs are taxes.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/06/24/as_is_the_case_with_all_taxes_tariffs_raise_prices_1118494.html

 

              The abuse of ‘delegated powers’ to address emergencies.

              https://cafehayek.com/2025/06/the-real-emergency-is-the-abuse-of-delegated-powers-to-address-emergencies.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              And now for the (unintended) consequences.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-official-confirms-rift-ceasefire-fails-trump-vowed-israel-wont-strike-after-he

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2025/06/25/defense-department-launches-criminal-leak-investigation-over-iran-nuclear-damage-n2659412

 

 

     Investing

 

            Focusing on what someone else is doing is not a good strategy.

            https://humbledollar.com/2025/06/eyes-forward-2/

 

            A riddle about gold.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/06/a-riddle-about-gold.html

 

            Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing.

            https://www.thesandboxdaily.com/p/the-headlines-are-loud-your-portfolio

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The accelerating decline in medical training.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/on-the-accelerating-decline-in-us-medical-training-and-with-it-doctor-competence.html

 

 

            Incentivized stupidity.

                        https://betterletter.substack.com/p/incentivized-stupidity?r=nmml&utm_campaign=email-half-post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack

 

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