Saturday, June 2, 2018

The Closing Bell


The Closing Bell

6/2//18

We are off for our annual anniversary beach trip.  Back on the 29th.

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Trading Range                      21691-26646
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     13307-29512
Long Term Uptrend                                  6410-29847
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                     2524-3295
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         1281-3096
                                    Long Term Uptrend                                     905-2963
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         


Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                          59%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        55%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is providing a slight upward bias to equity valuations.   The data flow this week was very upbeat: above estimates: the March Case Shiller home price index, weekly jobless claims, May nonfarm payrolls, April personal spending, April construction spending, the May Dallas Fed manufacturing index, the May Chicago PMI, May ISM manufacturing index, the April trade deficit; below estimates: weekly mortgage and purchase applications, April pending home sales, the April ADP private payrolls report, May consumer confidence, May manufacturing PMI; in line with estimates: April personal income, the second estimate of first quarter GDP.

The primary indicators were also quite positive: May nonfarm payrolls (+), April personal spending (+), April construction spending (+), April personal income (0) and first quarter GDP (0).  This week is clearly a plus. Score: in the last 138 weeks, forty-seven were positive, sixty-four negative and twenty-seven neutral.

This week stats were very constructive; indeed, this may be the most positive week of data this year.  While it is too soon to be considering a revision in our forecast, it could be signaling an improvement in the growth rate of the economy.  I will make three observations about these numbers:

(1)   the good news is that production data was consistently upbeat.  That is the most positive aspect of all the stats in that it could be a sign the corporations are starting to spend the windfall from the tax cuts.  As you know, the lack of any measureable reinvestment of these funds to date has been a disappointment to me and has factored into our sluggish growth forecast.  If that is starting to change, it is all for the good,

(2)   on the other hand, the increase in consumer spending when income is not growing is not a precursor to growth, especially when the consumer is so heavily indebted,

(3)   and finally, while the jobs number was great, remember employment is a lagging indicator.

Overseas, the stats were mixed, which is actually an improvement for the dataflow of the last couple of months.  That said, there is nothing there to support the ‘global synchronized growth’ narrative. 

The important fiscal development this week was the tariffs imposed on most of our major trading partners.  I covered this in Friday’s Morning Call; but my bottom line is that it is too soon to be talking trade war. 

Most of the political news was of the international variety: the US/North Korea summit is suddenly back on and everybody playing nicey nice.  Good news.  Trump is playing hard ball with our EU allies over sanctions against Iran.  I have no idea where this is going; but I can think of more negative than positive outcomes.

 Meanwhile, the Trump/Mueller/Stormy Daniels/Russia mess isn’t going away.  I have no idea where this whole thing ends up; but at this moment, it is becoming an increasing distraction from the business of the state.  Mostly, that is a good thing.  The more time our ruling class indulges in self-flagellation, the less time it has to screw with you and me.  My concern is that this ends in another impeachment circus which historically has never been good for the Markets.’

Our (new and improved) forecast:

A pick up in the long term secular economic growth rate based on less government regulation.  As a result, I raised that growth forecast. There is the potential that Trump’s trade negotiations could also lead to an improvement in our long term secular growth rate---though that has yet to be determined.  On the other hand, the tax cut and spending bills as they are now constituted are negative for long term growth (you know my thesis: at the current high level of national debt, the cost of servicing the debt more than offsets any stimulative benefit) and could potentially offset any positives from deregulation and trade.

On a cyclical basis, the economy appears to have lost any steam it might have had, after having achieved one of the longest growth cycles in history.  That said, this week’s data was very upbeat and may be portending a pickup in cyclical growth.

       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking system.  Congress passed an amendment to Dodd Frank this week lessening the regulatory burden on smaller banks.  That was probably a positive. 

Not positive is that the Fed is considering allowing greater freedom for the large banks’ prop trading desks.  This group was one of the driving forces in the last financial meltdown.  The primary cause is that the traders are incentivized [through their compensation] to take risks; but there is no downside since the only ones penalized for their losses are the taxpayers who have to bail them out.

Also not so positive is the continuing deterioration in Deutschebank’s balance sheet, as S&P downgrades its credit rating and the Fed has it on its ‘troubled’ bank watch list.  As a reminder, this is Germany’s biggest bank, it has the globe’s largest derivatives portfolio---counterparty risk being part and parcel of the last financial crisis.

(2)   fiscal/regulatory policy. 

It was a quiet week for real news.  Most of our elected officials have started their 2018 election campaigns including the president.  However, he remains a focal point as a result of the

[a] the trade negotiations with China, NAFTA and the EU.  In general, the headlines have not been upbeat in any of the cases---especially with the Thursday’s announcement of the imposition of steel and aluminum tariff on all three.  I covered much of this in Friday’s Morning Call but my bottom line is that given Trump’s negotiating style this development doesn’t necessarily mean bad results are forthcoming.  Moreover, as long as he is reasonable and fair, I don’t have a problem with being tough.  However, the risk is overplaying the hand and precipitating a trade war.  Any such development would be a major negative for the economy.

        
[b] peace/denuclearization talks with North Korea.  While this negotiating process has proven quite volatile, for the moment, there is hope of lowering tensions.  That said, the North Koreans have a history of lying and breaking agreements.  So caution is the word,

[c] the march toward imposition of sanctions against Iran.  This is causing tremendous heartburn among our EU allies even more so because it is intertwined with the aforementioned trade issues.  I have no idea how this situation resolves itself, though it seems that there is a lot more potential negative than positive outcomes,

[d] the ongoing sagas of sex and collusion which put ‘Days of our Lives’ to shame.  I have no idea how any of this turns out; however, it almost certainly diverts attention from the running of the state---which I consider a plus.  The less time this crowd had to mess with you and me, the better.

A trade war would be a significant negative for the economy.  However, it remains to be seen if one will occur.  The more immediate problem is too much national debt and too large a budget deficit---of which the cost of servicing will use up productivity impeding economic growth.

(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created or is creating asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

The Fed released its latest Beige Book this week.  I covered this in Thursday’s Morning Call.  The bottom line being little change in the regional Fed’s assessment of the economy.

Perhaps more important are the risks of a potential trade war and the political unrest in Italy and Spain.   Adverse developments in either case would likely slow, halt or even reverse the current Fed tightening policy.  I continue to doubt the effectiveness of QE in stimulating growth so any suspension of QT, in my opinion, will have little economic impact.  However, it will prolong the mispricing and misallocation of assets and likely make the ultimate resolution more painful.

Also in the mix now is the apparent start of the Bank of Japan’s tapering of its bond buying program.  The latest numbers may be just a seasonal or technical fluke, so we really need to wait and see if this is for real.

(4)   geopolitical risks:  see above.


(5)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The international data this week was mixed.

 [a] April German unemployment fell slightly; the May EU manufacturing PMI was below estimates while the UK PMI was above,

[b] May Chinese manufacturing PMI was in line,

[c] April Japanese retail sales were well ahead of expectations but the May manufacturing PMI was below.

The major news item was the Italian political crisis and the turmoil it caused in its bond market---which dominated the headlines for two days, then quickly retreated as an issue of investor concern.  It hasn’t gone away as a risk, it is just that investors took a deep breath and decided that there was a far lower risk of any disruptions. 

But just to be clear on the nature of the risk were it to become manifest---Italy’s withdrawal from the EU or its refusal to abide by EU fiscal policies would result in a significant decline in the prices of Italian government bonds.  These securities constitute not only a substantial portion of the country’s own banking system’s capital (i.e. solvency) but also a big enough portion of other EU countries’ banking capital to cause problems.  

            Bottom line:  the US long term secular economic growth rate could improve based on increasing deregulation.  In addition, if the success of the trade negotiations with South Korea can be repeated with the EU, NAFTA and China, then a fairer trading regime would almost certainly be an additional plus for the US long term secular economic growth rate.  ‘If’ remains the operative word; plus we need to see the shape of any new agreement before changing our forecast. 

At the same time, those long term positives are being offset by a totally irresponsible fiscal policy.  The original tax cut, a second proposed new improved tax cut, increased deficit spending and a potentially big infrastructure bill will negatively impact economic growth and inflation, in my opinion.

That said, if this week’s improvement in the economic numbers turn out to be permanent, I may be proven wrong on the issue of tax cuts.  The question will be, will the increase in corporate spending be enduring (secular) or transitory (cyclical).

Until otherwise proven wrong, I continue to believe that the current level of the national debt and budget deficit are simply too high to allow any meaningful pick up the long term secular economic growth.  I believe that a bigger deficit/debt=slower growth and a higher deficit spending=inflation, even if they are the result of a tax cut and/or infrastructure spending.  Hence, this is a negative for the long term secular growth rate of the economy.  The degree to which these opposing forces offset each other is the $64,000 question to which I currently have no answer.

It is important to note that the negative impact that a rapidly growing national debt and budget deficit have on economic growth is not just fiscal in nature.  There is also an effect on Fed policy (via the increase in interest rates) which has its own problem extricating itself from its irresponsible venture into QE. 


The Market-Disciplined Investing
         
  Technical

The Averages (DJIA 24635, S&P 2734) reversed themselves again and soared on Friday though on lower volume.  Still breadth improved.   The Dow finished below its 100 day moving average (now resistance).  The S&P ended back above its 100 day moving average voiding Thursday’s break (now support).  Both remained above their 200 day moving averages (now support).  The Dow is in a short term trading range, the S&P in a short term uptrend. 

The resistance from the 100 day moving average continues to have, at least, a short term impact on upside momentum.  Until that barrier can be overcome by both indices, stocks are at stall speed.  Longer term, the assumption is that stocks are moving higher.
               
                The VIX fell 12 %, finishing below its 200 day moving average, negating Tuesday’s break (now resistance), below its 100 day moving average (now resistance) and back below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend---one day after resetting to a trading range.  Given the downward momentum from other indicators, I am leaving the trend as down.

The long Treasury was down 3/4 %, ending over its 100 day moving (now support), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance).  It remained within its long term uptrend and short term downtrend.

The dollar rose, closing above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (now support) and in short term and very short term uptrends as well as, though it ended right on the lower boundary of the latter’s uptrend.
               
GLD was down, finishing below its 100 and 200 day moving average (now resistance) and in a short term downtrend, though is it is nearing the upper boundary of that trend.
               
Bottom line:  I continue to think that confusion/uncertainty best describes the pin action since mid-May as (1) both the Averages see saw back and forth around resistance/support levels and the 100 day moving average acting like a magnet preventing follow through in either direction, (2) the long bond points at either lower rates [slowing economy] or a safety trade, (3) the dollar points at higher rates or a safety trade and (4) gold is unable to get out of its own way, suggesting nothing.

  At the moment, my focus is on the resistance being offered by the 100 day moving averages to any price increase on the short term.  Longer term, the assumption remains that stock prices will continue to rise.

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model).  However, ‘Fair Value’ could be positively impacted based on a new set of regulatory policies which would lead to improvement in the historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy.  A further increase could come if Trump’s drive for fairer trade is successful.  On the other hand, a soaring national debt and budget deficit are negatives to long term growth and, hence, ‘Fair Value’.

At the moment, the important factors bearing on corporate profitability and equity valuations are the same as those impacting bonds, the dollar and gold:

(1)   the extent to which the economy is growing.  The optimists are out there; but to date they have questionable support, in my opinion, from the reported data.  Clearly this week’s stats help their cause.  But unless the numbers remain upbeat, the burden of proof is on those in the positive camp,

(2)   the rate at which the Fed unwinds QE.  The optimists believe that it will tighten only to the extent as to not disrupt the Markets.  However, I believe that at some point the Markets will force the Fed to tighten whether it wants to or not.  And when that occurs, so does the unwind of asset mispricing and misallocation.

Bottom line: a new regulatory regime plus an improvement in our trade policies should have a positive impact on secular growth.  On the other hand, I believe that fiscal policy will have an opposite effect on economic growth---though as I noted above I could be proven wrong on the impact of the tax cut.  Making matters worse, monetary policy, sooner or later, will have to correct the mispricing and misallocation of assets---and that will be a negative for the Market.

Our Valuation Model assumptions may be changing depending on the aforementioned economic tradeoffs impacting our Economic Model.  However, even if tax reform proves to be a positive, the math in our Valuation Model still shows that equities are way overpriced.  That math is simple: the P/E now being paid for the historical long term secular growth rate of earnings is far above the norm.

                As a long term investor, with equity valuations at historical highs, I would want to own some cash in my Portfolio and, if I didn’t have any, I would use any price strength to sell a portion of my winners and all of my losers.
               
                As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages.  Rather I apply it to each stock in my Portfolio and when a stock reaches its Sell Half Range (overvalued), I reduce the size of that holding.  That forces me to recognize a portion of the profit of a successful investment and, just as important, build a reserve to buy stocks cheaply when the inevitable decline occurs.

DJIA             S&P

Current 2018 Year End Fair Value*              13860             1711
Fair Value as of 6/30/18                                  13600            1677
Close this week                                               24635            2734

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 50 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.








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