Monday, July 17, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P (and the Dow) moved through the upper boundary of its recent one month trading range.  Volume was low and breadth unimpressive.  But price is truth; and price says stocks are going higher.

            TLT rose just enough on Friday to close on its 200 day moving average and the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  That leaves me on the sideline on trend and on exactly what bond investors are thinking.  A hopeful sign is that most other segments of the fixed income complex performed well on Friday.

            The dollar’s chart is starting to remind me of GLD---sick.  It is a bit confusing that bond investors seem uncertain about the economy while the dollar is so pronounced in its pessimism.

            GLD was the mirror image of the dollar, popping above the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend and nearing its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  Typically, gold and the dollar are negatively correlated, so Friday’s pin action is not surprising.  What is surprising was TLT Casper Milquetoast performance.

            The VIX is challenging the lower boundaries of its intermediate and long term trading ranges for the eighth time.  If it remains there through the close on Tuesday the intermediate term trend will reset to a downtrend; if it remains there through the close on Thursday, the long term trend will reset to a downtrend.



            ***overnight, strong economic data out of China (short):

            On the other hand (medium):

            The latest from John Mauldin (medium):

       Investing for Survival
            Simple beats complex.
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) declares $0.805/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK): Q2 EPS of $5.24 misses by $0.15.
Revenue of $2.97B (+6.1% Y/Y) misses by $40M.


   This Week’s Data

            The July NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 9.8 versus expectations of 15.0.





            Countries that trust their government the most/least (short):

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