Monday, February 27, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            There is little say about the S&P chart except that it is spectacular.  At the moment, the assumption is that it will challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.  Further it would have to fall almost 7% before any support level would be challenged.  On the other hand, this is what blow off tops look like.

The long Treasury appears to be breaking out of a developing pennant formation on volume.  TLT still has a number of resistance levels to overcome (100 and 200 day moving averages, a very short term downtrend).  However, a reversal has to start someplace.  Time will tell.  The importance of this potential move is that it is signaling that the Trumpflation trade may be ending.  That would have implications for the equity market.

            GLD continues to repair what had been an ugly chart.  It still has a ways to go; but it is all about progress.

            The dollar was up fractionally on Friday---something of an anomaly when rates drop (TLT rises).  It is also above its 100 and 200 day moving averages, in a short term uptrend and an intermediate term trading range.

            The VIX remains in a zone that characterizes complacency.  It can remain there for a long time; and indeed already has.  But it is a warning sign that at current price levels investors have no fear.



            Monday with Trump: budget news

            Here is a counterpoint from David Stockman.  This is a 26 minute interview but is well worth the time spent.

***Overnight, Germany said that a Greek bailout must not include creditors taking losses on the loans/bonds; February economic sentiment came in at 108.0 versus the January reading of 107.9

       Investing for Survival

            Be prepared for a bear market   

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

   This Week’s Data

            January durable goods orders were up 1.8%, in line; however, (1) the December reading was revised from -0.4% to -0.8% and (2) ex transportation, the number was -0.2% versus expectations of +0.5%.


            OPEC and the production cut (medium):



Intellectual intolerance (medium and a must read):

  International War Against Radical Islam

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