Monday, February 6, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            Despite some major jigginess on Friday stemming from the better nonfarm payrolls number and the Trump reform proposals for Dodd Frank, the S&P just couldn’t penetrate its 2300 level.  That doesn’t mean that it won’t.  But until this index can trade above 2300, I think that the best we can hope for overall is further churn in stocks.

            I thought that I would show some longer term charts this week because most of the indicators I watch are nearing critical technical levels.  As you can see, TLT has endured some severe whackage since mid-2016 and is now nearing the lower boundaries of all timeframes.  The bond boys have historically been better at forecasting the economy than the stock guys; so how TLT handles these support levels could be a good indication of the outlook for growth and inflation.

            Gold is one day away from reestablishing a very short term uptrend and is a short hair away from challenging its 100 day moving average.  While it still has a ways to go before regaining an uptrend, the chart appears to be getting healthier.

            The dollar is in a very short term downtrend and is near challenging its 100 day moving average.  If successful, the 200 day moving average and the lower boundary of its short term uptrend are next.

            The VIX (11) fell 8% on Friday.  It is below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend.  It is nearing the lower boundaries of its intermediate term trading range (10.3) and its long term trading range (9.8).



            The latest from Bill Gross (medium and a must read):
       Investing for Survival
            Financial forecasts and on limited cognitive resources.
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous


   This Week’s Data


            Bank of China starting to tighten monetary policy (medium):

Former Greek finance minister urges bailing on the bailout (medium):



  International War Against Radical Islam

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