The Morning Call
12/8/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
most notable aspect of the S&P chart is how tightly the index is hugging
the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.
While it has closed above that boundary for three days in a row, the
penetration is fractional at best. Even
if the S&P confirms the break under our time and distance discipline, as
long as it is only surfing the top of trend line, it certainly won’t be
decisive by any means. On the one hand,
this kind of pin action confirms the strength of resistance of the long term
uptrends upper boundary; on the other hand, the fact that the S&P hasn’t
retreated suggests that there is a lot of force in the current upward momentum.
The
long Treasury is near challenging the upper boundary of its very short term
uptrend for a second time. It remains
well within its short term uptrend, an intermediate trading range and above its
50 day moving average. The momentum is
toward lower yields which seems in conflict with the forecast of a stronger
economy.
GLD traded down
on Friday and closed right on the lower boundary of its former long term
trading range. The battle continues over
whether this boundary will mark a bottom. Until there is follow through in one direction
or the other, we won’t know. In the
meantime, the technical evidence (short, intermediate and long term trends and
the 50 day moving average) suggests a break to the downside. If that happens, it also is not indicative of
an improving economy.
VIX
re-set to a short term trading range last week but remained within an
intermediate term downtrend and below its 50 day moving average. The re-set is a plus for stock prices.
Fundamental
The
latest bankster mischief (medium):
Investing for Survival
Lessons
from oil’s Black Friday (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
A
closer look at Friday’s consumer credit report (short):
And
the mirror image of the nonfarm payrolls report (short):
Politics
Domestic
International
Obama
considering sanctions against Israel (short):
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