Monday, December 8, 2014

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

        Monday Morning Chartology

            The most notable aspect of the S&P chart is how tightly the index is hugging the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.  While it has closed above that boundary for three days in a row, the penetration is fractional at best.  Even if the S&P confirms the break under our time and distance discipline, as long as it is only surfing the top of trend line, it certainly won’t be decisive by any means.  On the one hand, this kind of pin action confirms the strength of resistance of the long term uptrends upper boundary; on the other hand, the fact that the S&P hasn’t retreated suggests that there is a lot of force in the current upward momentum.

            The long Treasury is near challenging the upper boundary of its very short term uptrend for a second time.  It remains well within its short term uptrend, an intermediate trading range and above its 50 day moving average.  The momentum is toward lower yields which seems in conflict with the forecast of a stronger economy.

GLD traded down on Friday and closed right on the lower boundary of its former long term trading range.  The battle continues over whether this boundary will mark a bottom.  Until there is follow through in one direction or the other, we won’t know.  In the meantime, the technical evidence (short, intermediate and long term trends and the 50 day moving average) suggests a break to the downside.  If that happens, it also is not indicative of an improving economy.

            VIX re-set to a short term trading range last week but remained within an intermediate term downtrend and below its 50 day moving average.  The re-set is a plus for stock prices.

            The latest bankster mischief (medium):

       Investing for Survival

            Lessons from oil’s Black Friday (medium):

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

   This Week’s Data


            A closer look at Friday’s consumer credit report (short):

            And the mirror image of the nonfarm payrolls report (short):




            Obama considering sanctions against Israel (short):

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