Friday, September 26, 2014

The Morning Call---Follow through or will the 'buy the dippers' show up?

The Morning Call

9/26/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            IN COMING!!  Unless you are Rip Van Winkle, you know that the indices (DJIA 16945, S&P 1965) suffered some serious whackage yesterday.  In the process, it clarified the confusion over the Dow’s back and forth around 17158 (upper boundary of its short and intermediate term trading range).  As confused as it makes me appear, I am once again switching my call on the DJIA’s short term trend---it’s now back at a trading range (16332-17158).  It remains within its intermediate term trading range (15132-17158) and long term uptrend (5148-18484).  It also finished right on its 50 day moving average.

The S&P remained in uptrends across all time frames: short term (1955-2146), intermediate term (1922-2722) and long term (771-20200; however, it closed below its 50 day moving average.

Volume was up; breadth poor.  The Market is in extremely oversold territory.  The VIX was up 18%, but still ended within short and intermediate term downtrends. It is back above its 50 day moving average.

Net free credit at dangerously low level (short and must read):

Update on sentiment (short):

The long Treasury spiked, finishing within short and intermediate term trading ranges and above its 50 day moving average.

GLD rose slightly but remained within very short term, short term and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.

Gold, the dollar and the Market (short):

Bottom line: although yesterday’s pin action left little doubt about investor sentiment, I don’t think that negates the recent overall pattern of schizophrenia.  After all, given the volatility of the last couple of days, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Averages rebounded 1-2% today.  Barring that, we did get a little clarity in the Dow trends---short term back to a trading range; intermediate term in a trading range. 

At this point, the big question is, will the ‘buy the dippers’ show up?   If they do, then direction will likely remain to the upside though the rate of change appears to have declined noticeably.  If not, well, then maybe we get some meaningful price adjustment.  However, that is getting way ahead of ourselves.  The job now is to await the arrival of the buyers or the magnitude of the initial follow through to the downside.

Our strategy remains to Sell stocks that are near or at their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

The Market’s historical performance in October (short):

    Fundamental
    
       Headlines

            Talk about a rough day for news.  US economic data got us started on a sour note: August durable goods---disappointing; the September Markit services PMI---disappointing; the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index---disappointing; and the silver lining of the day, weekly jobless claims up just not as much as expected.  Clearly, these stats, especially the durable goods number, did nothing to lessen my concerns about a slowing global economy beginning to impact our own.

            After that, it was a downhill slide:

(1)   in a speech in Rome, the Dallas Fed chief made a very negative comment on the level of risk that now exists in high yield bonds,
           
(2)   then Russia delivered a one-two bunch,

[a] first it announced that in retaliation for the EU re-selling Russian gas to Ukraine, it was considering cutting off all gas to the EU.  Oh, darn.  (medium)

[b] then, it threatened freezing foreign assets is response to the Italians seizing a couple of villas of one of Putin’s buddies (short)

            ***overnight, German consumer confidence came in lower than anticipated; and Japanese CPI was less than expected, more evidence that QE isn’t working (it is supposed to increase inflation).

            I said last week that I thought that we would soon be looking at Ukraine in the rear view mirror.  Clearly, that was a bit premature.  Equally clear is that Putin is reminding all the players that there is a price to pay for fucking with Russia---however small the transgression.  Think of his response to the Italians confiscating his buddy’s house and our own response to Mexico which has held for over six months a US citizen who took a wrong turn and accidentally ended up there.  My point is that as long as the West keeps poking Putin in the eye, the risk of a negative geopolitical event remains.

Bottom line: the good news was… well, there was no good news.  The bad news was that our forecast got punched again with a lousy primary economic datapoint; in this case, August durable goods orders---which was followed by some equally disappointing secondary stats.  The question in my mind is why this weighed as heavily on investors’ minds especially after the very upbeat QEInfinity news from China and Japan on Wednesday? 

The answer that I would like have is that investors have finally figured this scam out.  QE does nothing for economic progress; it simply assists the mispricing of assets.  Maybe the Fisher speech was an emperor’s new clothes moment; but there have been so many prior more obvious moments, that it seems unlikely.  

As always, there is possibility that yesterday was just one of those random days when the Market internals worked to push prices lower.

However, I come back to a point that I have made several times: the investment environment has changed since the FOMC meeting.  QEInfinity is no longer being viewed as a plus by the gold, commodities, Treasuries and real estate (REIT’s) markets.  I postulate that it could be reflective of the gradual realization that the global economy is slowing irrespective of QE and that is bad news for the US expansion.  So far, the evidence fits.  But much more needs to occur before it can be confirmed.

As I said Tuesday, I don’t see how the US economy can continue to stand tall in the face of weakening global economic activity and unfriendly government monetary/fiscal/regulatory policy.  Sooner or later, I believe that some number, some incident is going to pop the balloon of overvaluation.  I am clueless as to which one it will be.  But the yellow light is flashing.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.

            More on valuation (short):

            More on internal divergences (short):
            http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/gavekal_092514.php

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