Wednesday, February 5, 2020

The Morning Call--Will the Averages resume their advance to record territory?

The Morning Call

The Market

The Averages (28807, 3297) continued their rebound yesterday.  However, they moved out of oversold territory and the VIX remains at a more elevated level than I would expect (slight technical negatives).  On the other hand, the money flows are very positive and longer term the indices are technically strong (above both MA’s and in uptrends against all major timeframes). 

For directional information, I am now watching resistance at the former indices highs (29373/3337) on the upside and support at their 100 DMA [27661/3098] and the lower boundaries of their short term uptrends [24696/3058] on the downside.

            While yesterday’s pin action in TLT, GLD and UUP ran counter to their current trends (continued sluggish economy), it was not significant enough to yet question that scenario.

            Tuesday in the charts.

            Technical thoughts.



            The numbers were again positive yesterday.  Month to date retail chains store sales as well as December factory orders (and ex transportation) were upbeat.

            Overseas, December EU PPI came in flat, in line.

            China tripled down on stimulus.
            The other item worth mentioning is the screwup in the Iowa democratic caucus vote.  As you know, I refrain from political commentary.  But anything that helps Trump versus the dem’s I believe is good for the Market (to be clear, I am not opining on the economy, the climate, the social fabric, etc.; just the Market because that is my focus).  And to be fair, it also appears that even the dems think that this fiasco was a big negative.

            Bottom line.  I am not sure how much of yesterday’s rocket ride can be attributable to (1) a bounce off an oversold condition, (2) massive pump priming effort by the Chinese government or (3) the help rendered to Trump by the Iowa caucus debacle.  But clearly, coronavirus fears were at least temporarily assuaged---'temporarily’ being the operative word.

            None of this changes the valuation math.  Economic and earnings growth are struggling---not falling but not ‘lifting off’.  Stock prices for large segments of the Market are valuing profits generously.  It is among those equities that I am monitoring as a source of funds when they (1) have reached their Sell Half Range and/or (2) failed to meet their minimum financial criteria for inclusion in our Universe. In the midst of a significant up move to record levels, those are candidates for sale.

However, there are other industry groups that have been hammered and certain stocks within those groups are at or near our Buy Value Ranges.  Our Portfolios will be Buying from that group in periods of weak stock prices.

            January dividend by the numbers.

            Buffett on Aesop and Cinderella.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.


   This Week’s Data


            Month to date retail chains store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

            December factory orders rose 1.8% versus expectations of up 1.2%; ex transportation, they were up 0.6% versus +0.2%.

            Weekly mortgage applications rose 5.0% but the more important purchase applications fell 9.5%.

            The December US trade deficit was $48.9 billion versus forecasts of $48.2 billion.
            The January ADP private payroll report showed job growth of 291,000 jobs versus estimates of 154,000 jobs.


            The January Japanese services PMI was 51.0 versus consensus of 52.1; the composite PMI was 50.1 versus 51.1; the January Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.8 versus 52.6; the composite PMI was 51.9 versus 51.1; the January German services PMI was 54.2, in line; the composite PMI was 51.2 versus 51.1; the January EU services PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the composite PMI was 51.2 versus 50.9; January UK services PMI was 53.9 versus 52.9; the composite PMI was 53.3 versus 52.4.


            The global manufacturing PMI at nine month high in January.

            January heavy truck sales down.

What I am reading today

            Two groups that face the highest audit rate.

            What makes a good car in the snow?

            It never feels like the right time to invest.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website ( to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

No comments:

Post a Comment