Monday, January 27, 2020

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            Friday’s S&P pin action, notwithstanding, you couldn’t ask for a better looking chart.  The assumption has to be more of the same.
            ***overnight, the futures are off dramatically as a result of the rapid spread of the coronavirus and the growing number of deaths.  Barring some kind of Black Death scenario, I can’t imagine this epidemic rising to the level of having a major impact on the global economy.  The world has faced similar incidents (SARS, Ebola) in the past and they have had only a temporary effect on the economy and the Market.  That said, when equities are grossly overvalued, you never know what can trigger the ‘emperor’s new clothes’ moment.  My bottom line: this will prove to be another ‘buy the dip’ scenarios for the bulls.

            The long bond has broken out of its short term decline, in process reverting the 100 DMA to support.  Resistance can be found at the upper boundaries of its very short term trading range and its intermediate term uptrend.  On the negative side, there is a gap up open from Thursday that needs to be filled.

            The dollar spent last week rallying in an otherwise dismay chart.  It remains in a short term downtrend and below both MA’s.  But it has begun the process of closing that huge gap down open.  Challenging its 200 DMA will be a major test.

            GLD continues its winning ways, suggesting either a weak economy or a retreat to safety.

            The VIX had a big day on Friday.  It looks like it wants to trade above a very short term down trend that began last August.  And it closed above both its 100 DMA (now resistance; if it remains there through the close Tuesday, it will revert to support) and 200 DMA (now resistance; if it remains that through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to support).  At the moment, it appears to be following equity prices versus anticipating any move; so, its pin action is not providing any technically significant information, in my opinion.



            The coronavirus epidemic getting worse.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


   This Week’s Data



           The January German business climate index came in at 95.9 versus forecast of 97.0.


            Brexit a done deal.

What I am reading today

            Queen Elizabeth beats tinsel town.

            Scientists in Britain may have accidentally found a cure for cancer.

            There are no ‘market based solutions’

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