Wednesday, November 14, 2018

The Morning Call--Remember the last time oil prices fell


The Morning Call

11/14/18
The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25286, S&P 2722) continued their Monday decline.   The Dow ended back below its 100 DMA for a second day (if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance) but above its 200 DMA (now support).

The S&P finished below its 100 DMA for (now resistance), below its 200 DMA, (now resistance) and is closing in on the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (~2700).

My (technical) operating thesis right now is that the Averages have to close their initial gap opens in order to advance on their all-time highs and the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.  If correct, then more downside is coming in order to close the initial gap opens before the seasonal and calendar effects kick in.

Volume fell slightly; breadth was poor.

The VIX was down 2%, returning to its recent pattern of performing contrary to its normal inverse relationship with equity prices.  However, it remains technically strong: above both MA’s and within a short term uptrend.

The long bond was down but not enough to re-establish the recently voided very short term downtrend.  However, it finished below both moving averages and in a short term downtrend.

The dollar was also down, but remains technically strong.  I remain of the opinion that UUP will move higher as long as the dollar funding problem persists. 

GLD was up fractionally, ending below its 100 DMA for a second day (now support; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance). 

 Bottom line: the bad news is that the S&P was unable to successfully challenge its 200 DMA; given its recent power as support, it is significant that it is now acting as resistance.  Plus, it still needs to close its late October gap open.   The good news is that both of the Averages closed the most recent gap open and the positive seasonal and calendar factors aren’t going away. 

The positive scenario is that the indices fall further and close the initial gap open, then go on to challenge higher resistance levels. The negative scenario is that the seasonal and calendar factors can’t offset the negatives being posed by an irresponsible fiscal policy, a tightening Fed and overly generous stock valuations.

                       
            TLT and UUP continue to act like interest rates are going higher; gold continues to act like s**t.
                       
            Tuesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            There were two minor economic data releases yesterday: the October small business optimism index was slightly below estimates while month to date retail sales were flat with the prior week.

            No major headlines in the US but there are still developments that could potentially have an impact on the economy and the Markets.

            The positives:

(1)   there may be a Brexit deal.
                         
(2)   recession not likely in next 12 months.

(3)   mortgage delinquencies the lowest in 12 years.

            The negatives:

(1)   Italy defies EU mandate.

                       
(2)   oil continues to fall.

                              OPEC sees demand for crude declining.

On the other hand, the pin action may be the result of a hedge fund unwinding a losing position.
                              https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-14/was-behemoth-energy-fund-just-taken-chipper

                             ***overnight, OPEC is considering a production cut.


Finally, just a reminder of the macroeconomic consequences the last time oil prices plunged---‘an unmitigated positive’  NOT

(3)   Chinese credit growth slows significantly.

(4)   Moody’s expect credit conditions to weaken in 2019.

(5)   The math of the federal debt.

                              Total US debt to GDP.

            Bottom line:  while the economic news is not all bad, there is enough of it that, with the fading of the ‘everything is awesome’/’buy the dip’ mentality, it appears to be weighing on investor psychology.  There can always be a year-end rally based on seasonal/calendar effects.  However, US equities are already generously valued both on an absolute and relative basis.  Sooner or later, the bad news contained in the above links is either going to start impacting valuations or it is going to change.  I don’t want to be fully invested betting that the latter will occur; so I want to own some cash in order to buy stocks cheaper if the former happens.  I would use any strength in the Market to build a cash position, if I hadn’t already done so.

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS) declares $0.64/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

3M (NYSE:MMM) declares $1.36/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Month to date retail chain store sales grew at the same pace as the prior week.

Weekly mortgage applications were down 3.2% while purchase applications were off 2.3%.

October CPI rose 0.3%, in line; ex food and energy, it was up 0.2%, also in line.

     International

            Q3 EU flash GDP was up 0.2%; in line; German flash GDP was down 0.2% versus estimates of down 0.1%; October EU industrial production was -0.3% versus expectations of -0.4%.

            Q3 Japanese GDP was down 0.3% versus consensus of up 0.8%.

            October Chinese fixed asset investment came in up 5.7% versus forecasts of up 5.5%; industrial production was up .48%, in line; retail sales were up 8.6% versus projections of up 9.1%

    Other
                     
            The Fed chart book.

            A protectionist is….

                       
                        Wall Street is additive to the investment process.


What I am reading today

            Five ways to boost your social security benefit.


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