Friday, August 3, 2018

The Morning Call--Apple hits $1 trillion capitalization. And?


The Morning Call

8/3/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25326, S&P 2827) were mixed yesterday (Dow down, S&P up) on lower volume and weaker breadth.  They remain strong technically, but have a few minor negatives (1) the Dow fell back below its June high, (2) its 100 DMA is right on its 200 DMA and moving lower and (3) VIX remains range bound since mid-July between its 200 DMA and the lower boundary of its short term trading---which is providing no directional information.

The major technical story continues to be the decline of TLT (increase in interest rates) below its 100 DMA for the second day (now support; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance) and, more importantly, the lower boundary of its long term uptrend for a second day (if it remains there through the close next Wednesday, it will reset to a trading range).  While neither of these challenges have yet proven successful, as I noted previously, a break especially of the long term uptrend has major fundamental (much higher rates) as well as technical significance.

            The dollar bounced, remains technically strong and appears to be confirming a move to higher rates.  GLD was hammered (again), still has the ugliest chart around and is also pointing towards higher rates.
           
            Bottom line:  the Averages remain quite strong technically speaking, though cracks are again appearing.  The technical assumption remains that they are going to challenge their all-time highs.
           
            TLT’s performance has potentially important negative fundamental as well as technical implications.  I want my time and distance discipline to work itself out before assuming that the twenty year bond bull market is over.  Plus, I would remind everyone that TLT successfully challenged the lower boundary of its long term uptrend in mid-May and quickly reversed itself.  On the other hand, since that mid-May break, the dollar has continued to rise and GLD to fall, suggesting that they were anticipating higher interest rates.  Stay tuned.

            Yesterday in the charts.

            The bull case (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats were somewhat disappointing: weekly jobless claims were up slightly but in line with estimates; on the other hand, June factory orders rose less than expected.

            Investor’s main focus was extensions of late Wednesday night news:

(1)   the Donald’s threat to increase the tariff rates on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.

                 Why Trump is increasing tariffs on China (medium):

                China likely to have a first half current account deficit (medium):
                       

                                 ***overnight:

Mirroring Trump’s moves toward China (extending deadline of imposition of tariffs, then raising the tariff rates), China increased reserve requirements, essentially halting the Yuan devaluation;

           
                        Then, it put forth its own list for higher tariffs (short):


(2)   The media/Street obsession with Apple becoming the first trillion dollar capitalization company in history, plus who might be the next.  I suppose that statistically that is a circumstance worth more than a moment’s contemplation.  But the prolonged ogling, I don’t understand.  It’s a number.  As the economy grows, it is an inevitable number.  As an inevitable number, it doesn’t mark a new age in the economy or in equity valuation.  It just means the US economy has gotten bigger---which we already knew.  My concern is that this is just another late Market sign of too much optimism.

Bottom line: nothing has changed.  I like the cash reserves I have in my portfolio.

            July dividends by the numbers (medium):

            Update on market valuation (medium):

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) declares $0.69/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG): Q2 EPS of $1.37 beats by $0.14.
Revenue of $4.24B (+62.5% Y/Y) beats by $320M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            June factory orders rose 0.7% versus expectations of a 0.9% increase.

            July nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 versus estimates of +190,000; however, the June number was revised from +213,000 to +248,000. 

            The June trade deficit was $46.3 billion versus consensus of $45.6 billion.

     International

    Other

            This is the kind of nonsense about the discussion of the budget deficit/national debt that obfuscates the issue.  The author points out that the amount of debt is technically irrelevant, which is true enough, but fails to deal with the problem of servicing it.  The government can, of course, issue more debt to pay the interest but that usurps savings that would otherwise go to investment.  He also provides a laundry list of potential uses for more deficit spending which assumes that the political will address those needs wisely.  One only has to think of the $1 trillion spending bill on ‘shovel ready’ projects foisted on the taxpayers by Obama.

            Inflation is on the rise (medium):


What I am reading today

            Willing losers (medium):
           
            There is a fine line between over saving and under living (medium):

            If you take risk, get compensated for it (medium):

            Rising level of protests in Iran (medium):

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