Thursday, October 19, 2017

The Morning Call--The Beige Book is BS

The Morning Call

10/19/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 23157, S&P 2561) were up again, with the Dow closing above 23000.  Volume was flat and breadth continued strong.  Both remain above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames. 

The VIX (10.1) was down 2 ¼ %, but is still below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, below its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  However, it remained above the lower boundary of its long term trading range.  In addition, it closed above the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend and has now made a second higher low.  So far, it failed to make a new low and has to all the appearances has made a higher bottom.

The long Treasury declined, but finished above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (support) and the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend.  It has also broken a very short term downtrend. 

The dollar fell, remaining in its short term downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages. Last week, it is successfully challenged a developing very short term uptrend.

GLD fell, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (support) and the lower boundary of a short term uptrend.  Last week, it successfully challenged a developing very short term downtrend.

 Bottom line: long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Short term, they are above the resistance level marked by their August highs, meaning that there is no resistance between current price levels and the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends. 

Trading in UUP, GLD and TLT was inconsistent and of little informative value.

I remain uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data releases were mixed: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were up but September housing starts were awful as were building permits---though they were slightly better than expected.

Overseas, the September UK jobless rate hit a 42 year low.

***overnight, third quarter Chinese GDP was in line while retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment were slightly ahead of expectations; UK September retail sales were well below estimates; the August Japanese all activity index was below forecasts.

In political developments, North Korea upped the ante, threatening the US; Spain moved forward with the process of suspending the Catalonian regional government.

There was also news from the central banks:

(1)   The Fed released its latest Beige Book which showed growth in all regions including those impacted by Harvey, Irma and Maria.  If that is true then the underlying growth in those areas has to have been explosive to adsorb those hits and still be up.  Color me skeptical.  The report also suggested some upward price pressure but nothing that it was concerned about.  That I believe.

(2)   BOE head Carney raised the problem of the continuity of derivative contracts as a result of Brexit.

Brexit isn’t the only risk to derivative contracts (medium):

Bottom line: yesterday’s economic stats remind us that the economy is still struggling.  The mystery is the Fed’s Beige Book statement that economic activity improved in the areas hit by hurricanes which means either the actual numbers haven’t caught up the reported numbers or the Fed is talking its book.  Either way, I believe that it lacks any credibility. 

Meanwhile, financial types at long last seem to be starting to focus on the enormous derivative portfolio on the global banking system’s balance sheet.  These contracts (failure) were a major contributing factor to the financial crash; and the only reason that they were even bigger was that accounting rules were changed so that they didn’t have to be marked to market.  Now they are once again being recognized as risk to bank solvency.

            I continue to lighten up on holdings that have reached their Sell Half Range and believe that cash is currently a valuable asset.

            More on valuations (medium):

       Investing for Survival
   
            Value investing.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.85/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) German device unit Johnson & Johnson GmbH inks an agreement to acquire German software firm Surgical Process Institute (SPI), a specialist in standardizing and digitizing surgical workflows in the surgical theater. It has developed a way of standardizing surgery via a detailed step-by-step checklist that follows best-in-class standards.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            Weekly jobless claims fell 22,000 versus consensus of down 3,000.

            The October Philadelphia Fed business outlook index was reported at 27.9 versus expectations of 20.2.

   Other

            More on the problem of unfunded state pension liabilities (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

  International War Against Radical Islam


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