The Morning Call
9/8/15
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday Morning Chartology
The
S&P had a roller coaster ride last week.
At the end, it remained within its short term downtrend, but an
intermediate term uptrend. It also began
forming a pennant formation (green lines), then broke below the lower boundary
on Friday. If it finishes there at the close
today, the pennant formation will be voided---not a positive. The S&P also ended below the 1970
level---also not a plus. However, it has
not yet re-challenged its intermediate term uptrend or the August lows---which
is a positive. So the technical picture
for the S&P is a bit murky. This week
the key is to watch for a challenge of both the indices intermediate term
trends and whether or not that it is a success.
The
long Treasury traded quietly last week, following a plunge the prior week. That fall was largely tied to the Chinese
currency problems and likely reflects liquidation of Treasuries by China and
other emerging markets. I continue to
believe that it does represent the discounting of a stronger US economy or a
move up in the Fed Funds rate.
GLD’s
chart continues to be ugly. I thought
that it had a chance to hold its very short term uptrend and signal that a bottom
had been made. No such luck. It remains in downtrends across all
timeframes. I am watching its
July/August lows (green line) to see if those levels can hold. If so, perhaps the bottom will be made the
hard way.
The
VIX continues to point to more Market volatility. It is in a short term uptrend, and
intermediate term trading range and well above its 100 day moving average.
Fundamental
***lots
of foreign economic while we were on break: August Chinese imports plunged,
exports off 5.5%; August German exports and imports improved; second quarter EU
GDP was up 0.4% versus expectations of up 0.3%; second quarter Japanese GDP
dropped 1.2%. China sold $94 billion US
Treasuries in August, has spent 600 billion yuan to date in stock market ‘plunge
protection’ and overnight further tightened capital controls.
The
latest from Doug Kass (medium):
Is
it over yet? (medium):
Investing for Survival
How
a Harvard economist saved her retirement (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
August small business optimism index came in at 95.9 versus estimates of 96.0.
Other
Inside
the employment data (short):
Update
on big four economic indicators (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
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