The Morning Call--Everything is crashing

 

The Morning Call

 

4/4/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/its-trainwreck-everywhere-tariffs-terrible-data-prompt-panic-across-global-markets

 

Note: yesterday’s carnage left the S&P below that 3/13 low with the next visible support at (1) the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level [~5225] and (2) the lower boundary of its short term [say again---short term] uptrend [~5160]. The only positive news is that it did so on a huge gap down open which at its worst could mean a reflexive bounce to fill the gap.

 

            Market in full blown panic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/markets-full-blown-panic-vix-goes-vertical

 

            Broken trend lines.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/trouble-tariffs-and-broken-trendlines

 

            From Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uncertainty-going-remain-sticky-top-goldman-trader-urges-safety-first-out-there

           

            Stocks decline morphing from chronic to acute.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/decline-stocks-morphing-chronic-acute

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March services PMI was 54.4 versus estimates of 54.3; the March composite PMI was 53.5, in line.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/03/sp-global-services-pmi-march-2025

 

The March ISM services index was 50.8 versus expectations of 53.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/03/ism-services-pmi-march-2025

 

March nonfarm payrolls rose 228,000 versus consensus of +135,000; the March unemployment rate was 4.2% versus 4.1%.

 

                        International

 

February Japanese household spending was up 3.5% versus projections of +0.5%.

 

February German factory orders were flat with January versus forecasts of up 3.5%.

 

The March EU construction PMI came in at 44.8 versus predictions of 45.1; the March German construction PMI was 40.3 versus 43.0; the March UK construction PMI was 46.4 versus 46.0.

 

March UK YoY new car sales were up 12.4% versus estimates of down 7.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Thursday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-2nd-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

              Everything is crashing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-crashing-after-china-retaliates-34-tariffs-us-goods

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              What will central banks do in response to Trump’s tariffs?

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/how-might-central-banks-react-to-trumps-new-tariffs-07754640?mod=economy_lead_pos5

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Ken Rogoff on the dollar and government debt.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/04/ken-rogoff-our-dollar-your-problem.php

 

              Decent news on an otherwise gloomy day.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/doge-impact-federal-govt-layoffs-dominate-biggest-march-job-losses-36-years

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on home affordability.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/new-home-affordability-crisis-enters.html

 

            Recession

 

              Recession odds just went up significantly.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/2-april-2025-an-event-study

 

              ISM data on verge of a warning flag.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/economically-weighted-ism-manufacturing.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              This changes everything.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trumps-tariffs-aim-to-create-a-new-world-economic-order-f48057ae?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Initial Street reactions.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reign-tariffs-begins-all-you-need-know-about-trumps-reciprocal-trade-war

 

              China strikes back.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-strikes-back-slaps-34-tariff-us-goods-after-trumps-liberation-day

 

              Tariffs from Reagan to Trump.

              https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/trade-protection-and-tariffs-from-reagan-to-trump

 

              The problem with romanticizing the past.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/03/a_return_of_manufacturing_jobs_is_more_crippling_than_bombs_1101139.html

 

              Managing expectations for a global trade war.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-expectations-for-a-global-trade-war/

 

     Investing

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/02/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

            Two dangerous words to use in investing.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/04/03/the-two-most-dangerous-words-in-investing/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.