Monday, January 7, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

1/7/19

The Market
         
    Technical

Quite a Friday.  The news flow was an investor’s wet dream: strong employment data, a Fed that is ‘listening to the Market’ and US/China talks beginning today.  While neither volume or breadth were all that impressive for a 3 ½ % up day, the S&P managed to negate its very short-term downtrend, then set a new higher low and a new higher high---all of which suggest some near term follow through to the upside.  However, lots of work needs to be done to re-establish an uptrend.
           


             TLT gave back all of Thursday’s gain though on less volume.  Nonetheless, the current strong uptrend is not in danger of being challenged.

           

                  
            The dollar was off four cents on Friday, but remained above both moving averages, within a short-term uptrend and a developing consolidation range.  Nothing in its performance suggested investors are less worried about liquidity problems.  Certainly, its pin action was somewhat calm on a huge risk-on day.



            Like the dollar, GLD was down as you would expect on a risk-on day.  However, there is no real danger of breaking its very short-term uptrend.        



As you might expect, the VIX was down on Friday; but the chart is still a strong one.  The VIX remains in very short term and short-term uptrends and above both moving averages.         



    Fundamental

       Headlines

             US/China trade talks kick off today.  Here’s the latest.

            The dangers in the EU financial system.



    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

     International

The December Japanese services PMI was 51.0 versus November’s 52.3; the composite PMI was 52.0 versus November’s 52.4.

November German factory orders fell 1.0% versus expectations of -0.3%.

November EU retail sales were up 0.6% versus estimates of +0.2%.

    Other

            November median household income.

            Global update from the American Economic Conference.

What I am reading today

           

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