Monday, June 19, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P remains in a slow and steady short term uptrend dating back to early March and long term uptrend above its moving averages and within uptrends across all timeframes.  There no technical reason to believe that it won’t reach the upper boundary of its long term uptrend (2763).

            The long Treasury continues to do well. It finished Friday above its 200 day moving average for the third day (if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to support) and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend for the third day (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a trading range).  It seems bond investors don’t anticipate stronger economic growth/rising inflation.

            GLD’s recent pin action has not been that great.  Clearly the upper boundary of its short term trading range offers stiff resistance.  On the other hand, gold has made a series of higher lows; plus the 100 day moving average has crossed above the 200 day moving average---usually a positive technical sign.  Still in an environment of lower rates, a declining dollar and all modes of political turmoil both in the US and internationally, it ought to be much stronger.

            Despite a brief rally last week, the dollar’s generally soft performance continues.  Like TLT, it is pointing to a weak economy, low inflation and stable to lower interest rates.

            The VIX seems stuck between its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower boundaries of its intermediate and long term trading ranges.  That suggests a Market that continues to a nonvolatile drift---though that drift could be directional; in this case to the upside.



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            More problems in the Chinese financial system (medium):



More millennial snowflake madness (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam

            The cost of appeasement (medium):

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