Nothing has really changed about the S&P as far as all its trends go. The one distinguishing element in this chart is Friday’s price action. The price range for that day was very wide with the highest price being above Thursday’s high price and the lowest price below Thursday’s low price. In addition, it closed below Thursday’s close. In technical parlance, that is called an outside day to the downside and as the name suggests usually means that the near term Market direction is lower. It also occurred on volume, meaning that this wasn’t a chance circumstance on a lazy summer day. So the odds are on for a down day today and then we just have to pay attention to the magnitude and volume of any follow through.
The long Treasury had a down week, though it wasn’t dramatically so. Still, it couldn’t progress far enough to challenge its short term downtrend not could it hold above its 200 day moving average. The gap between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundaries of its very short term and long term uptrends continues to narrow. How this developing pennant formation gets resolved may determine the longer term direction of TLT.
The dollar’s pin action was the mirror image of the TLT---moving up for most of the week. But it did nothing to alter its overall negative technical status---below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a very short term downtrend.
GLD followed TLT price pattern, though it was much more dramatic move to the downside, having bounced off the upper boundary of its short term trading range for a second time and closing below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend for a second day, negating that trend. It did manage to remain above its 100 and 200 day moving averages; and the 100 day moving average is about to cross above its 200 day moving average---usually a positive sign. However, GLD has clearly lost some upward momentum.
The VIX had an extremely volatile day on Friday, largely spawned by the whackage in the FANG stocks. The issue today and this week will be whether the dip in the tech stocks has any follow through. Notice that the bounce on Friday ended the fourth unsuccessful challenge of the lower boundaries of the intermediate and long term trading ranges.
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