Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P continues in uptrends across all timeframes. So it seems reasonable to assume that it will take out 2300. But so far it hasn’t, despite the Dow’s successful challenge of 20000. Until that occurs, in my opinion, it diminishes the strength of the Dow’s break, however, jiggy investors may be feeling.
The long Treasury voided a five week uptrend last week, leaving it solidly in a downtrend on a very short term (six months) basis. It is now approaching the lower boundaries of its short and intermediate term trading ranges and its long term uptrend. That is a lot of support in a very confined area, suggesting that bonds are apt to flatten out, at least in the short term, and could make a bottom.
GLD’s chart continues to resemble TLT’s. Last week, it broke a recent uptrend which was fighting against declining 100 and 200 day moving averages and a short term downtrend. Also like TLT, it has near in support---the lowest Fibonacci line is also the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.
The dollar was flat last week. It is now trading in a narrowing range bounded by the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend on the upside and its 100 day moving average on the downside, supported further by the 200 day moving averages and the lower boundary of its short term uptrend. Note that it appears to have bounced off the level of a prior low. That is not major support but would gain strength if UUP breaks above the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend.
The VIX (10.6) has been getting hammered. It is below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within very short term and short term downtrends. Note its proximity to the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range---a support level going back 10 years.
The latest update on Trump immigration ban (medium):
Clinton on illegal immigrants (short):
Uh o, tax reform delayed?
The latest from David Rosenberg (medium):
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The myth of passive indexing.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Donaldson (NYSE:DCI) declares $0.175/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
This Week’s Data
December personal income rose 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.4%; personal spending was up 0.5%, in line.
***overnight, January EI industrial confidence and economic confidence were better than estimates while services confidence was below.
Crude oil production in the US at 10 month high (short):
Update on auto loans (short):
US/UK begin negotiating a trade deal (short):
How long can Chinese debt continue to grow )medium):
International War Against Radical Islam
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